SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

For the second year in a row, the Screen Actors Guild announces its picks one day before Golden Globe nominations are revealed, which makes it considerably tougher to predict the nominees without that helpful handicap of knowing ten likely contenders beforehand. Without knowing all that much, here are my best guesses for SAG’s five inclusions in this category. Check back on Wednesday for detailed reactions by category.

Last year’s nominees:
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Let’s start with the most secure lock of all, Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), who won both of his SAG bids this decade. His most likely competition will be past nominees Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) and Denzel Washington (Flight), and then a handful of other actors will fight for the final slots. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) and Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) may compete from the musical/comedy side for their first nominations, while past nominees John Hawkes (The Sessions), Anthony Hopkins (Hitchock) and Richard Gere (Arbitrage) may place for their dramatic performances. This category could provide a real surprise and has, in the past, bolstered contenders like Richard Jenkins and Demian Bichir to eventual Oscar nominations.

Predicted nominees:
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)