Oscar Predictions: Best Sound Editing

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 10th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse

This year’s locks: Zero Dark Thirty

Very likely: The Dark Knight Rises, Life of Pi

Possible: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Prometheus, The Avengers, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln, Skyfall, Looper

Unlikely: Plenty of others

The rundown: Unlike Best Sound, this category tends to lean more towards the technical, honoring genre films along with, on average, two Best Picture nominees. That probably gives Zero Dark Thirty and Life of Pi the edge over Les Miserables, Argo and Lincoln. I think that The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey should have a good shot, and while I’m tentative about it, I think that Prometheus stands a better chance than The Avengers and Skyfall, which I don’t think will attract much Oscar attention.

One possible crazy scenario: It wouldn’t be that far outside the realm of possibility, but The Bourne Legacy placing after The Bourne Ultimatum won here five years ago would be a surprise based on its considerable lack of buzz.

Forecasted winner: This may be where The Dark Knight Rises gets to claim its prize, like the previous installment in the series did four years ago.