Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 10th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball

This year’s locks: Zero Dark Thirty, Argo

Very likely: Lincoln, The Dark Knight Rises

Possible: Les Miserables, Django Unchained, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi

Unlikely: Skyfall, Moonrise Kingdom

The rundown: This category usually likes Best Picture nominees, but not all the time, as evidenced by memorable snubs of “Inception” and “Brokeback Mountain.” The most secure nominee this year is Zero Dark Thirty, and Argo should be here as well. It stands to reason that the popular Lincoln would make the cut, and The Dark Knight Rises will be here unless voters really aren’t enthusiastic about the film. Les Miserables is far from a lock – “Chicago” won but “Dreamgirls” wasn’t even nominated – and it could easily be replaced by Django Unchained if that film is hot, Silver Linings Playbook if voters really love it, or Life of Pi if voters feel that the editing was the strongest part of that film (which it wasn’t).

One possible crazy scenario: The overlong The Hobbit finds itself nominated.

Forecasted winner: This one goes to Zero Dark Thirty unless they really love “Argo.”