Wednesday Oscar Watch

Welcome to the first 2012 edition of this returning feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. It’s a bit early to be able to accurately predict the eventual Oscar nominees, but around this time, plenty of likely contenders are being released. I’ll be looking every Wednesday at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week. Additionally, to make up for lost time, I’ll also be taking a look at the films released earlier in the year, two months at a time. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section. Also, if I’ve missed any films from the previous months, please say so!

Films released October 19th, 2012

The Sessions
This drama is garnering praise for John Hawkes, who was nominated for his supporting turn in “Winter’s Bone” in 2010. His performance is a good bet for a nomination, and less certain is costar Helen Hunt, who won an Oscar for “As Good As It Gets” in 1997 but hasn’t been seen on the awards circuit since. She has an outside shot, but Hawkes is a much better bet.

Films released March and April 2012

The Lorax (March 2) and The Pirates! A Band of Misfits (April 27)
These two films are contenders, at least for now, in the Best Animated Feature race, which has become increasingly hard to predict recently. I’d say the former has a decent shot, and I wouldn’t count on the latter.

Detachment (March 16)
Adrien Brody was terrific in this sobering drama, from director Tony Kaye, whose lead actor Edward Norton was nominated for “American History X” over a decade ago. This film didn’t get enough attention to muster awards placement, though it would be nice if it was remembered for its lead performance or its sharp directing and writing.

The Hunger Games (March 23)
This mega-hit is the kind of movie that could make it to the expanded Best Picture field, though “Star Trek” and “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2” not making the cut suggests that there isn’t room for blockbusters like this. It will probably fare better in the technical categories – sound and visual effects nods are within the realm of possibility.

Bernie (April 27)
This film will likely be entirely forgotten by Oscar time (if not already), but Jack Black may garner some votes for his energetic performance as the murderous title character.