Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Visual Effects

The competition: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Dark of the Moon

Previous winners: Inception, Avatar, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Golden Compass, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, King Kong
My winner: Super 8
Who should win: Hugo
Who will win: This category has had relatively obvious winners for the past few years, with the exception of the surprise victory for “The Golden Compass” over the first “Transformers” film in 2007. That cancels out the chances for “Transformers: Dark of the Moon,” and I don’t see “Real Steel” winning either. “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” was a popular movie, but I see this going to either “Harry Potter” or “Hugo.” One is a consolation prize for an eight-film franchise, and the other is the year’s nomination leader. I’d hedge my money on sentiment for a film that won’t win a bunch of other technical awards, “Harry Potter.”