Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The competition: The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation

Previous winners: The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Milk, Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Crash
My winner: “Beginners”
Who should win: “The Artist” or “A Separation”
Who will win: In the past twenty years, this award has gone to a Best Picture nominee all but four times. The past two years, the Best Picture frontrunner has eclipsed another film that initially appeared to be the leader to sweep the award. This category is friendly to comedies, rewarding “Juno,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” and others in the past decade. “Margin Call” is a smart selection, but its nomination is its prize. “A Separation” is going to win the Best Foreign Film award, so I doubt it’ll triumph here. “Talk To Her” did win in 2002, so this category doesn’t hate international cinema. That leaves three comedies vying for the win. “Bridesmaids” would be a fun, memorable choice, but I don’t see it going the distance. “The Artist” could sweep this, and though its screenplay isn’t its most notable (or audible) element, it’s definitely brilliant. That leaves Woody Allen, who has been nominated fourteen times before in this category, and won twice, in 1977 and 1986. I think he’ll earn his third win in what’s pretty much guaranteed to be the only Oscar “Midnight in Paris” is going to win.