Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Kenneth Branagh’s Laurence Olivier (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill’s numbers geek (Moneyball), Nick Nolte’s alcoholic father (Warrior), Christopher Plummer’s newly out senior citizen (Beginners), and Max Von Sydow’s mute renter (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close).

Previous winners: Christian Bale, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem, Alan Arkin, George Clooney
Who should win: Plummer
Who will win: On one occasion only in the 18-year history of the SAG Awards has the winner of both the SAG and the Golden Globe in this category gone on to lose the Oscar, and that was Eddie Murphy for “Dreamgirls.” Plummer, who is currently 82 and got his first nomination two years ago, isn’t in danger of pissing off the wrong people. Von Sydow, also 82, does hold that same status, to a degree, earning his sole previous nod in 1988. The latter’s film scored a surprise Best Picture bid, while the fantastic “Beginners” was shut out elsewhere. The only Best Picture boy in the category is young Hill, who couldn’t possibly win, and I doubt if he’ll find a role that anyone will take seriously enough again (DB). Nolte hasn’t won, and neither has Branagh, but something tells me they’re on their own, and they’re not going to have a shot. Most importantly, however, Plummer is so far ahead of this thing that I don’t think anyone can take him down.