Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Demian Bichir’s hard-working dad (A Better Life), George Clooney’s Hawaiian businessman (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin’s silent film actor (The Artist), Gary Oldman’s subtle spy, and Brad Pitt’s baseball manager (Moneyball).

Previous winners: Colin Firth, Jeff Bridges, Sean Penn, Daniel Day-Lewis, Forest Whitaker, Philip Seymour Hoffman
Who should win: Dujardin
Who will win: This category is not entirely consistent – sometimes it’s about the performance of a lifetime, and other times, it’s about rewarding a strong actor with a reliable and proven track record. The former sometimes loses, like when Mickey Rourke lost to Sean Penn for “Milk” in 2008. Penn did win the SAG, however, so Jean Dujardin has a leg up on George Clooney in that sense. Clooney won several years ago, so he’s no longer overdue, and Pitt’s performance, however great, isn’t quite as serious, which doesn’t make the case as strongly for him to win. Oldman is definitely overdue, and it’s crazy to think that this is his first nomination. If Dujardin can’t muster up enough support, I doubt it’s Clooney that takes it; instead, it’ll like go to an Adrien Brody, which would probably be Oldman rather than Pitt. There’s no way that Bichir wins this since his film has absolutely no support (please note, DB) elsewhere. I still think that Dujardin is far enough ahead that he’ll be fine, and he sure deserves it, doesn’t he?