Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary

Last year’s nominees: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland, Inside Job, Restrepo, Waste Land

This year’s contenders: Bill Cunningham New York, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Pina, Semper Fi: Always Faithful, If a Tree Falls, Hell and Back Again, We Were Here, The Loving Story, Project Nim, Under Fire: Journalists in Combat, Buck, Battle for Brooklyn, Jane’s Journey, Undefeated, Sing Your Song

The rundown: There isn’t an “Inside Job” or “Waiting for Superman” in the mix this year, and I’m ashamed to admit that I’ve seen a grand total of zero of the fifteen finalists. Oscar voters often choose thematically strong films here and favor war-centric movies as well as a random pick or two. “Paradise Lost 3” could divide voters, but I’m betting that it will place, in addition to “Pina,” which could make a splash both here and in the Best Foreign Film category. Other than that, I’m going in blind here, and while I do hope to offer more commentary once the nominees are announced and I only have five films to see, that’s all I can say for now.

Forecasted winner: “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”