Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jacki Weaver

This year’s locks: Octavia Spencer (The Help), Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)

Very likely: Jessica Chastain (The Help), Shailene Woodley (The Descendants), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)

Possible: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Carey Mulligan (Shame), Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

The rundown: This category seems to be set, which means that it’s anything but. Spencer is a sure thing, and I can’t imagine Bejo missing out giving how well her film is likely to do. Chastain is in unless, for some reason, voters choose her two other praised performances this year, but precursors were able to decide on one, so she should be fine. Woodley is a good bet because her film is sure to be embraced by voters, and McTeer will probably get in even if Glenn Close doesn’t. McCarthy would have been much better off had she not missed out on a Globe nod, but watch out for her, since she could still show up. Mulligan and Redgrave, praised as they might be, just haven’t popped up in enough places, and I don’t imagine their films will rank well with Oscar voters.

One possible crazy scenario: Judy Greer makes it in for “The Descendants” instead of Woodley.

Forecasted winner: Spencer