Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams

This year’s locks: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Viola Davis (The Help), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Very likely: Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)

Possible: Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Unlikely: Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)

The rundown: Streep and Davis are going to battle this thing out for the win, and the rest of the crew is just along for the ride. Williams is going to be the only returning nominee from last year, and she’ll probably be joined by Globe and SAG nominee Swinton. Close managed to hang out with Globe and SAG mentions as well, but I think she’ll be booted come Oscar time for Rooney Mara, whose film looks like it’s going to go the distance. Once upon a time, Olsen was a sure thing, so that could still happen, but without a SAG boost, it’s not likely. And on the off chance that Oscar voters go nuts for Von Trier, Dunst could be in. Otherwise, don’t expect too much excitement in this category

One possible crazy scenario: Charlize Theron gets noticed for her dry comic turn in Jason Reitman’s “Young Adult.”

Forecasted winner: Streep