SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture

This year, the Screen Actors Guild announces its picks one day before Golden Globe nominations are revealed, which means it will be considerably tougher to predict the nominees without that helpful handicap of knowing ten likely contenders beforehand. Without knowing all that much, here are my best guesses for SAG’s five inclusions in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

If there’s one film that’s getting in here without a doubt, it’s The Help. Aside from that, there are no sure things, since this category does differ from the Oscar Best Picture race in that it highlights ensemble performance specifically. That decreases the chances for, but does not altogether discount, films such as The Artist, Hugo, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, and War Horse. It helps a movie like The Ides of March, which will likely make the cut, and I think The Descendants is safe too. Adventurous choices would be Drive and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, but I don’t see either of those happening. One film that gets a huge boost from its cast being featured is Midnight in Paris, which could make the cut here. Rounding out the contenders are J. Edgar, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and if voters really want to be forward-thinking, Bridesmaids.

Current predictions:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris