Wednesday Oscar Watch

Welcome to a newly-restarted feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. It’s a bit early to be able to accurately predict the eventual Oscar nominees, but around this time, plenty of likely contenders are being released. I’ll be looking every Wednesday at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week. Additionally, to make up for lost time, I’ll also be taking a look at the films released earlier in the year, one or two months at a time. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section. Also, if I’ve missed any films from the previous months, please say so!

Films released October 14, 2011

The Skin I Live In
Director Pedro Almodovar has had some success with the Oscars in the past, winning one Best Foreign film honor, getting nominated for another, winning Best Original Screenplay, getting nominated for Best Director, and directing Penelope Cruz to a nod. His film is not Spain’s Oscar submission this year, so I think he may have to sit the race out since many will be disturbed by his film’s content, and Antonio Banderas isn’t beloved enough to earn his first Oscar nomination for this off-putting part. If only a nomination for Best Art Direction was in the cards…

Footlose
The 1984 film was nominated for two different original songs, but I think the new film will sit the Oscar race out entirely.

Films released August 2011

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (August 5)
This surprisingly well-received film will probably contend for Best Visual Effects and may also pop up in the Best Sound, Best Sound Editing, and Best Makeup categories.

The Whistleblower (August 5)
Back in August, this may have seemed like a good bet for 2005 Best Supporting Actress winner Rachel Weisz. She may still net a Golden Globe nomination, but I think the film flew too under the radar to receive any Oscar attention.

The Help (August 10)
This film is going to get Oscar nominations; the question just becomes where. Best Adapted Screenplay is a strong possibility, and then the four actresses come into play. Octavia Spencer is a lock for Best Supporting Actress, and Viola Davis will probably get in, though it’s less clear where, though I’d put her in Best Actress right now. I’m pulling for Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastain, but I think there just isn’t enough room for all of them. Best Art Direction is a strong possibility, and I think that the film should be able to manage a Best Picture nomination if there are more than five nominees.

One Day (August 19)
One-time nominee Anne Hathaway and eventual nominee Jim Sturgess were good in this film, but I don’t think it’s going to attract any serious Oscar attention.