Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Film

Last year’s nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up

This year’s locks: Toy Story 3, How to Train Your Dragon

Very likely: None

Possible: Tangled, The Illusionist, Despicable Me

Unlikely: Megamind, Shrek Forever After, Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole, Alpha and Omega, My Dog Tulip

The rundown: Above you see ten of the fifteen films eligible for this category (I couldn’t rate the remaining five since I know nothing about any of them and they’re so unlikely to pop up). What we have here is a year with only fifteen films deemed eligible, meaning that only three films can be nominated. The trouble is, there are five strong contenders. Last year, there were five slots across the board, and “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” and “9” ultimately lost out to surprise nominee “The Secret of Kells.” Now, the five are very clear, and the question is, which third film will prevail? I’m pulling for “Tangled,” though French-produced film “The Illusionist” could take it (four foreign films have been nominated in this category since its inception in 2001). There’s also “Despicable Me,” which joined the two above-listed locks at the PGA Awards. Some are suggesting that a big surprise a la “The Secret of Kells” could occur again, but I doubt it.

Forecasted winner: “Toy Story 3”