Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

Because of the busy nature of the next few weeks awards-wise, here are my current Oscar predictions, subject to minor revisions before nominations are announced on January 25th.

Last year’s nominees: District 9, An Education, In the Loop, Precious, Up in the Air

This year’s locks: The Social Network, Winter’s Bone

Very likely: None

Possible: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole, True Grit, 127 Hours, The Town

Unlikely: I Love You Phillip Morris, Barney’s Version, How to Train Your Dragon, The Way Back

The rundown: This strikes me as a tight race between six contenders. In a sense, “Toy Story 3” is at a disadvantage as an animated film, and the surprise Golden Globe nomination for “127 Hours” (plus WGA nod) is a big boost for that film, though not a guarantee by any means, as evidenced by the snub of Globe-winning screenplay “About Schmidt” in 2002. “True Grit” may be vulnerable, though if the Coen brothers are going to get in anywhere, writing is usually their best bet. I’ve seen “How to Train Your Dragon” listed as a contender, and I don’t really see why that is unless people really did love the film as much as it seems. This isn’t an overly exciting race, unless shocking WGA nominee “I Love You Phillip Morris” makes a splash here too.

Forecasted winner: There’s no way this won’t be The Social Network.