SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble Cast

My predictions: 2/5, picking only “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network”
Who’s missing: “Inception,” “The Town,” “Winter’s Bone,” “True Grit”

This category offers a few surprises, and they’re not necessarily good ones. Black Swan is mirroring the trajectory of “Precious” last year, performing better than I both expected and desired. It's bothersome for one thing because there isn’t much of an ensemble aside from four main actors. Its nod here all but solidifies it as one of the top five, which is more relevant these days for the Best Director race than it is for Best Picture since this one already had a Best Picture nod locked up. The absence of “Inception” is curious but not too troubling since it’s more a collection of good actors than good performances. “The Town” not being here isn’t a bad omen, but its presence here would have been a good sign for its chances. Instead, we get another big boost for The Fighter, though it’s not as if this puts it ahead of “127 Hours” since that film obviously couldn’t have contended here (it's also not right that the ensemble award apparently only includes the four main players and Jack McGee, rather than all of the actresses who played Mickey's many sisters). I shouldn’t have bet against The Kids Are All Right, and I don’t know anyone who would have bet against The King’s Speech and The Social Network. Every film here has at least two acting nods except for TSN, officially making this one of the only awards bodies where it’s not as much of a frontrunner.

Who could win? Since it is the SAGs, I’ll go with The Kids Are All Right to eclipse probable winner “The Social Network.”