Golden Globe Musings: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)

This category seems especially difficult to penetrate at this point. With Annette Bening in the comedy category, the strongest contender and likely winner is Natalie Portman (Black Swan), who won in the supporting race back in 2004 for “Closer.” Next up is probably Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), a three-time Globe winner, once in this category. After that, things get a bit more uncertain. I’m hopeful that Lesley Manville (Another Year) can begin awards season with a deserved nomination, and her placement in this category shouldn’t be as much of a problem here as it might be at the Oscars. While she probably won’t make it to the Oscars, Naomi Watts (Fair Game) is a good bet to earn her first Globe nomination, and I would posit that Oscar favorite Hilary Swank (Conviction) makes it in here. That of course does leave out Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), but I think she’ll surge later on, like at the SAG Awards. Additionally, don’t discount Diane Lane (Secretariat), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine), Tilda Swinton (I Am Love), and the unpredictable Halle Berry (Frankie and Alice).

Predicted nominees:
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Lesley Manville (Another Year)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Hilary Swank (Conviction)
Naomi Watts (Fair Game)