Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The competition: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up

Previous winners: Milk, Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Crash, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Who should win: Inglourious Basterds
Who will win: Don’t expect “The Messenger” to take this home since it’s the only film not nominated for Best Picture here. That’s not a disqualifier by any means, but it won’t receive many votes over the other four. Despite four nods over the past six years, no animated film has ever won this award, so don’t bet on “Up,” even though it is only the second animated film nominated for Best Picture, and the first didn’t have its screenplay under consideration. The Coen brothers may garner some votes for their latest script, and they won this award back in 1996 for “Fargo,” but it isn’t likely that it will win. That narrows the race to two contenders that are pretty much deadlocked. My bet is that the more writing-intensive script will win, as opposed to the film cited for its taut direction and impressive technical elements. It could well be “The Hurt Locker,” but I think that Quentin Tarantino will take home his second trophy (he won in 1994 for “Pulp Fiction”) for Inglourious Basterds.