Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams, Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei

This year’s locks: Mo’Nique (Precious), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)

Very likely: Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Penelope Cruz (Nine)

Possible: Samantha Morton (The Messenger), Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds), Diane Kruger (Inglourious Basterds)

Unlikely: Marion Cotillard (Nine), Mariah Carey (Precious)

The rundown: There’s no debating that the three locks will be nominated, but the other two are going to have a much tougher time doing so. Moore missed out on a SAG nom, and everyone seems to think that Cruz is out of the race because her film didn’t do so well. I’ll point out that last year, Cruz won the Oscar in this category for a film that received no other nominations and for a less beloved performance, in my opinion. Morton doesn’t have the momentum to get in, unlike in 2003 when she was nominated for “In America” and the Best Actress field was in desperate need of some padding to ensure Nicole Kidman wouldn’t be recognized for her unenthusiastic work in “Cold Mountain.” The two unlikely women I mention are simply the less front-and-center ladies in their films and shouldn’t be able to ride their buzz to a nomination. I think this is the one category where there could be a huge surprise, and I do hope it’s a good one.

One possible crazy scenario: Both Moore and Cruz are out and are replaced by Kruger and Laurent, giving “Inglourious Basterds” three acting nominations.

Forecasted winner: Mo’Nique