Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet

This year’s locks: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)

Very likely: Helen Mirren (The Last Station)

Possible: Abbie Cornish (Bright Star), Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)

Unlikely: Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds), Tilda Swinton (Julia), Marion Cotillard (Nine)

The rundown: This lineup has become much more set in stone than originally anticipated, as possible nominee Bullock catapulted to the head of the pack and should now be considered a lock. It’s still possible that Mirren could fall off the radar and be replaced, but I think she’ll be fine. It’s not as if any of the nominees are really weak or fallible, so there’s no reason to expect any big surprises here.

One possible crazy scenario: Mirren is out and replaced by Laurent, who has a better shot in the supporting category but could be promoted to this race.

Forecasted winner: Sandra Bullock