Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Michael Shannon

This year’s locks: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Very likely: Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)

Possible: Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker)

Unlikely: Alec Baldwin (It’s Complicated), Alfred Molina (An Education), Paul Schneider (Bright Star)

The rundown: While I list only Waltz as a lock, this category actually looks pretty safe and set, but there’s a possibility than any number of the four men listed as very likely could be swapped out for someone else. McKay could manage it, but Mackie and the three unlikely men below him have almost no nominations to suggest that anyone would recognize their performances. The reason that the four likely nominees might not be so likely: Tucci’s film tanked, some didn’t like Damon’s, and both Harrelson’s and Plummer’s films were tiny and seen by almost no one.

One possible crazy scenario: Stanley Tucci’s name is called – for “Julie & Julia” instead of “The Lovely Bones.”

Forecasted winner: Christoph Waltz