Monday Oscar Odds

Welcome to the final edition of the Monday Oscar Odds, nominations version. After the SAG Awards air this Saturday, Movies with Abe will feature Oscar predictions three times per day, one category at a time. Those will be my final predictions in all categories; here are minor updates from last week. Remember to check back all next week for full predictions in all categories.

Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

This weekend, the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes took place. “The Hurt Locker” took Best Picture at the former, and was eclipsed by “Avatar” in the Best Motion Picture – Drama category at the latter. The big surprise was that “The Hangover” won the Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical award. Now that’s not necessarily terribly significant because none of the five films I had listed to fill the remaining five slots in this category were nominated in that category, so it’s not as if it takes a spot away from any of them. That winner usually gets nominated about half the time, so don’t count on it. Also, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are different organizations, so the fact that one loved a raunchy comedy doesn’t mean that the other, which snubbed “Mean Girls” and “Knocked Up” in the Best Screenplay categories, will. I’m keeping my predictions the same for the moment, and may change them next week. What do you think?

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Though I still can’t believe, Bullock beat out Mulligan for the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, and tied with Streep at the Critics Choice Awards. Many have touted her as a lock for months now, and unfortunately I think I’m going to have to jump aboard that train.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mo’Nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

Best Cinematography
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon

Best Art Direction
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Best Film Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Up in the Air

Best Original Score
Avatar
The Informant
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
Up

Best Original Song
Avatar, “I See You”
Brothers, “Winter”
Crazy Heart, “The Weary Kind”
Nine, “Cinema Italiano”
The Princess and the Frog, “Almost There”

Best Makeup
District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Best Animated Feature
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

See you next week for final Oscar predictions! Please chime in if you have anything to say.