Monday Oscar Odds

Full-fledged, extensive Oscar predictions are coming soon, but I’d like to keep a running list of my predicted nominees up until that point. I’ll expand to include other categories later. Remember to check back soon for analysis and revised predictions. This week, I’m adding initial predictions for a few new categories. Commentary coming later.

Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

The Producers Guild of America announced its nominations last week, going wild for sci-fi by including District 9 and Star Trek over Nine and A Serious Man. I originally had “Star Trek” in my predictions when I was convinced Up wouldn’t go the distance. Its inclusion in both the animated and best picture fields for PGA indicates to me that it’s truly locked now. I am swapping out “Nine,” however, in favor of “District 9,” which seems to be picking up buzz. Things aren’t looking good for “A Serious Man” either, but I don’t think “Star Trek” can edge it out. Good news for “An Education” and “Invictus” though, both of which rebounded from Golden Globe snubs. It’s worth noting that, unfortunately, “A Serious Man” is now the only film without a PGA or Globe nod for Best Pic. That’s not entirely problematic, but it’s not good either.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

The Directors Guild of America announced its nominations last week, including four of the above people and swapping out Clint Eastwood (Invictus) for Lee Daniels (Precious), making him the first African-American director nominated by that guild. Eastwood’s snub isn’t hugely problematic, however, since he missed out on a DGA nod in 2006 for “Letters from Iwo Jima” before both he and his film went on to get nominated at the Oscars, leaving “Dreamgirls” director Bill Condon out in the cold. Daniels could still slip in, but it’s worth emphasizing that the DGA list is often a good predictor for the Best Picture race rather than the Best Director race. It has been a bit off for the past few years, but went 5/5 from 2002 to 2005. With ten nominees, that doesn’t mean as much, but this still boosts Daniels’ chances. I’m keeping Eastwood for now.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mo’Nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

The Writers Guild of America announced its nominees today: 500 Days of Summer, Avatar, The Hangover, The Hurt Locker, and A Serious Man. Both Inglorious Basterds and Up weren’t eligible, so expect them here, along with “The Hurt Locker” and “A Serious Man”. I’m dropping The Messenger since it seems to be losing rather than picking up steam, and replacing it with the James Cameron film that everyone thinks won’t be nominated but probably will. I can’t see “The Hangover” landing a nomination, and “500 Days of Summer” probably has a better shot than I’m predicting. An interesting note: last year, only winner “Milk” was nominated for both a WGA award and an Oscar, and all of the other four nominees were different.

Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

The Writers Guild of America announced its nominees today: Crazy Heart, Julie & Julia, Precious, Star Trek, and Up in the Air. This list looks a little weird because An Education, District 9, and In the Loop were ineligible. Still, it’s bad news for Invictus, even though Clint’s last big film, “Letters from Iwo Jima,” also got snubbed by the WGA before landing an eventual Oscar nod. I’ve realized that my lack of faith in “An Education” wasn’t a good idea, and I doubt that the two newcomers to the game, “Crazy Heart” and “Star Trek,” will really be able to uproot another contender.

Best Cinematography
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon

The American Society of Cinematographs announced its nominees today: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Nine, and The White Ribbon. I’m dashing hopes of my personal winner in this category, A Single Man, being nominated, in favor of this same list. The last time the ASC list matched up perfectly with the Oscar lineup was in 2007.

Best Art Direction
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are

Read about the Art Directors Guild nominations here. There are three separate categories, so I’m okay sticking to this list.

Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Best Film Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Up in the Air

Best Makeup
District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek

The Academy announced today that the contenders have been narrowed to seven: District 9, Il Divo, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus,
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, The Road, Star Trek, and The Young Victoria. I’m sticking with my initial guesses, though this could be where “The Road” gets its potential sole nomination.

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

The Academy announced on Wednesday that the contenders have been narrowed to seven: Avatar, District 9, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Star Trek, Terminator Salvation, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, and 2012. I’ll stick with the above three, mostly because they’re considered better films. That’s not necessarily relevant in this category, but I still think those three are strongest.

Best Animated Feature
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

The Producers Guild of America announced its top five animated films this week, leaving off Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs for my favorite animated film of the year, 9. I’m not sure that will be enough to knock the former out of the running, especially since Ponyo could still sneak in. Worth nothing, though.

Check back every Monday for a slightly updated list of Oscar predictions. Please chime in the comments with your thoughts!