Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe

Welcome to a new weekly feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. Every Wednesday, I’m taking a look at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section.

Avatar
This is one of only two major awards contender movies released this year that I have to see, and I really do plan it seeing it soon. It seems I’d be a fool not to predict its domination at the Oscars, since it has earned mostly glowing reviews and Golden Globe nominations for Best Picture, Director, Score, and Song. The last time James Cameron was nominated, he won and “Titanic” took home a boatload of Oscars. The interesting thing to note about that is that “Titanic” didn’t even score a nomination for Best Screenplay, and it’s likely “Avatar” won’t due to its sci-fi subject matter and a whole lot of competition. Otherwise, it’s probably safe in the aforementioned four categories, as well as Visual Effects, Sound, Score, Film Editing, Art Direction, and maybe even Cinematography. I’ll be able to make those predictions more securely once actually having seen the film…

Crazy Heart
This film is locked in two categories and that’s probably it, but it will be a serious threat to win in both. The first is Best Actor for Jeff Bridges, who has earned four Oscar nominations over the past forty years and delivers what many, including myself, call a career-best performance. He’s sure to be in the final five, and a strong possibility to beat Colin Firth (“A Single Man”) and George Clooney (“Up in the Air”). Don’t count on a nomination for costar Maggie Gyllenhaal, whose category confusion won’t help her since both categories already have a solid list of contenders. The other category in which this film will get nominated is Best Original Song, where “The Weary Kind” should definitely make it in.

Nine
This majestic musical from the director of “Chicago,” which won Best Picture seven years ago, did extremely well at the Golden Globes with five nominations, but it’s likely that only two to three of those will translate to the Oscars. “Cinema Italiano,” a Best Original Song contender, should have no trouble getting in if the number of nominees stays at five, and Penelope Cruz has done well with precursors to earn a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Plus, she’s last year’s winner in the category, which could either help (we love her!) or hurt (again?) her. With ten nominees in the Best Picture category, “Nine” could have a good shot but may fall out if the so-so reactions to the film are shared by Academy voters. Director Rob Marshall is almost definitely out, but the film should be able to score nominations for Best Costume Design and Best Art Direction, as well as Best Sound, Best Sound Editing, Best Cinematography, and Best Film Ediitng.

The Young Victoria
This period piece opened later and to positive reviews but little buzz. Emily Blunt probably came close to an Oscar nomination three years ago after earning a Golden Globe nod for “The Devil Wears Prada,” and she’ll likely come close again this year. Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”) is probably a step ahead of her, and the Best Actress category is sealed a bit too tightly for her to crack it. She still has a shot, so don’t write her off just yet, but don’t hold your fingers either. The film may have a better chance at scoring nominations for Best Art Direction and Best Costumes, like “The Duchess” did last year. Blunt will probably have to wait a bit, but someday she’ll be an Oscar nominee.

I can’t imagine any nominations for Did You Hear About the Morgans. That’s it for notable films released this past week. There are only a couple of weeks in the year left! Come back every Wednesday for an analysis of the previous Friday’s theatrical releases and their Oscar chances. Thanks for reading!