Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe

Welcome to a new weekly feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. Every Wednesday, I’m taking a look at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section.

Up in the Air
This is the safest Oscar contender that’s been released yet. It’s a crowd-pleaser that’s locked in a number of categories: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor (George Clooney), and Best Supporting Actress (Anna Kendrick). It’s also a likely nominee for Best Director (Jason Retiman, nominated in 2007 for “Juno”) and perhaps Best Film Editing as well. Never-nominated Vera Farmiga might be up for Best Supporting Actress, but competing with costar Kendrick might not be great for her. This one may in fact win Best Picture – look for it to do well at the Oscars.

The Last Station
This film opened in extremely limited release this week, which is why I have yet to post a review, but it will probably do well with Oscar nominations and then be a big draw at theatres. 2006 Best Actress winner Helen Mirren may return to that race again for her lead role as Tolstoy’s wife. Supporting actors Christopher Plummer and James McAvoy may earn their first nominations, while Paul Giammati could earn his second. I think the attention for this film might be limited to a nod for Mirren because the supporting actor field may be too crowded with all three of them in the running. It’s a possible Best Picture nominee, but I think it will be eclipsed by other films.

Brothers
This film boasts three talented actors, two of who have one career nomination and the other who has never been nominated but may turn in his most mature performance to date. Natalie Portman (“Closer”), Jake Gyllenhaal (“Brokeback Mountain”), and Tobey Maguire were touted early on as potential contenders, but I don’t think the film opened strongly enough for any of them to break into the race. Reviews weren’t exceptionally great, and I think this film will slide under the awards radar.

Everybody’s Fine
Robert De Niro may earn his seventh Oscar nomination for his performance as a patriarch trying to reconnect with his family during the holidays. I haven’t seen the film, but it hardly seems like the kind of role that deserves Oscar attention. All of his nominations have come from intense dramatic performances, some of which have become extremely iconic (“Taxi Driver” and “Raging Bull”). The film isn’t popular, and most reviews praise only De Niro’s performance, if in fact they do. There are at least seven much stronger contenders ahead of De Niro, and unless voters are feeling truly nostalgic, I doubt he’ll break through.

Serious Moonlight
This film isn’t really an awards contender, but it might have been in a weaker year. It’s worth noting that Timothy Hutton, who’s fantastic in the film, won an Oscar for his film debut in 1980 in “Ordinary People.” Now, almost thirty years later, he’s back with a terrific role in Cheryl Hines’ new film. This isn’t going to be Meg Ryan’s first Oscar nomination, and while it would be nice to see a tribute to late screenwriter Adrienne Shelly, this film is just too small. Her previous film, “Watiress” didn’t garner any Oscar attention, and that film earned infinitely more favorable reviews than this one.

Rounding out this week’s releases, Armored, Transylmania, and The Strip won’t grab Oscar voters’ attention.

There are only a couple of weeks in the year left! Come back every Wednesday for an analysis of the previous Friday’s theatrical releases and their Oscar chances. Thanks for reading!