SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees:
AMY ADAMS, DOUBT
PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT
TARAJI P. HENSON, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
KATE WINSLET, THE READER

Not counting Kate Winslet’s promotion to lead at the Oscars last year, this category has been a spot-on predictor of the corresponding Oscar race for the past four years. Before that, however, it included some veteran actresses in barely-recognized roles, like Cloris Leachman (Spanglish) and Michelle Pfeiffer (White Oleander). In 2001, only one nominee, Helen Mirren for “Gosford Park,” matched up with the eventual Oscar contenders, highlighting performances from a diverse range of talent from Judi Dench to Cameron Diaz to Dakota Fanning. This year should definitely trumpet Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), and, as a category that looks kindly upon two nominees from the same film (five times in its fifteen-year-history), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air) should be recognized as well. Mo’Nique (Precious) will be here unless her film or attitude creates backlash. Julianne Moore (A Single Man) should be here, but I fear she’ll be snubbed. Penelope Cruz (Nine) should be nominated if voters can decide which performer they like from the film, and they might go with seven-time SAG nominee Judi Dench (Nine) as well. Don’t count out Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), but I think the fifth slot will go to an underdog contender receiving her first individual SAG mention, Samantha Morton (The Messenger).

Predicted nominees:
PENELOPE CRUZ, NINE
VERA FARMIGA, UP IN THE AIR
ANNA KENDRICK, UP IN THE AIR
MO’NIQUE, PRECIOUS
SAMANTHA MORTON, THE MESSENGER


Final predictions will be offered on Wednesday, December 16th, after Golden Globe nominees are revealed. SAG nominations will be announced on Thursday, December 17th, and come back to Movies with Abe for a detailed look at each race.