Monday Oscar Odds

Full-fledged, extensive Oscar predictions are coming in January, but I’d like to keep a running list of my predicted nominees up until that point. I’ll expand to include other categories later. Remember to check back in January for analysis and revised predictions, and stay on top of the awards race by checking back at Movies with Abe for Golden Globe nomination reactions (all day December 15th) and SAG Award nomination reactions (all day December 17th). And, of course, check back every Monday for a slightly updated list of Oscar predictions. Please chime in the comments with your thoughts! Commentary for each category listed below the predicted nominees.

Best Picture
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air

This week’s updates include the removal of The Lovely Bones as a Best Picture contender after having seen it (review coming soon), and more importantly having seen the stellar reviews it’s received. I’m replacing it with Up, which I felt would be snubbed despite the presence of ten nominees in the category, but I think it can make it. Major buzz is cropping up for Avatar after it died a few months ago, but I don’t think it will make it. We’ll have to see. The Messenger is also playing strongly. I really think that nine of these films are pretty much set, and Star Trek is the wild card – a slot that could go to Avatar, The Last Station, The Road, 500 Days of Summer, District 9 (how cool would that be?) or any other film on the face of the planet.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Rob Marshall, Nine
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

I’m not so sure that the Coen Brothers (A Serious Man) will receive a nomination, whereas “Chicago” director Rob Marshall (Nine) has a similar film out this year which should be able to net him a nomination. Lee Daniels is also a serious threat, and then there’s James Cameron (Avatar) and Tom Ford (A Single Man). It’s still too early to tell, though. Let’s see what the precursors say.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Hal Holbrook, That Evening Sun

No change here – I still think that veteran Hal Holbrook (That Evening Sun) may be able to knock out newbie Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker). Beyond Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine), there’s really no other competition, since Viggo Mortensen (The Road), Robert De Niro (Everybody’s Fine), and Sam Rockwell (Moon) probably won’t factor into the race too much.

Best Actress
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

No change here either. It’s still just as hard to predict how the films of Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) and Helen Mirren (The Last Station) will fare at the Oscars, whereas the other three are pretty safe. Contenders from the sidelines are Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Marion Cotillard (Nine), and Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones), though I don’t really see any of those three happening. And, if I had a vote, Tilda Swinton (Julia) would come from out of nowhere and land a surprise nod.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

I’m flip-flopping between Woody Harrelson (The Messenger) and Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) after seeing both films. I somehow just don’t see Harrelson getting a nod despite the quality of his performance, whereas Tucci should be able to get in because he’s easily the best thing about his film. I’m also not positive about Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), especially considering James McAvoy and Paul Giammati are both also in the same film. Matt Damon should end up with a nod even if he starts in the derby late like Jake Gyllenhaal in “Brokeback Mountain” or Josh Brolin in “Milk,” missing out on a Golden Globe nod but becoming a surefire contender by Oscar time. Besides the unserious Alec Baldwin (It’s Complicated), the only real threat to upset is Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker), and while he was great, I can’t see it happening.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mo’Nique, Precious

This seems like the likely list of nominees, and beyond these five, the runner-ups come from a large, messy pool. Judi Dench (Nine) is only one of the actresses from her film who might join Penelope Cruz (Nine) in the lineup. Mariah Carey (Precious) and Paula Patton (Precious) are both being touted as contenders. Samantha Morton (The Messenger) could break through, while Susan Sarandon (The Lovely Bones) and Rachel Weisz (The Lovely Bones) might garner votes if people don’t actually watch the film. Beyond that, from the summer there was Marion Cotillard (Public Enemies), and my personal favorite, Melanie Laurent (Inglorious Basterds). These five look pretty solid though.

Best Original Screenplay
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

I’m not sure about District 9, but hey, it’s my optimistic pick, and the best way to recognize the film if it doesn’t get nominated. Others are suggesting 500 Days of Summer, though I’m inclined to believe that the snubs of “Garden State,” “The 40-Year-Old Virgin,” and “Knocked Up” make me think that might not be grown up enough for Oscar voters. Otherwise – It’s Complicated? I don’t know what else would end up here. Maybe The Messenger? Probably.

Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
Invictus
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

These five look pretty good, with Julie & Julia as the weakest and most fallible of the group. While I’d be delighted to see it, I’m not sure In the Loop was seen by enough people to get a nomination. Nine won’t be recognized for writing, and there are so many other book adaptations to choose from, like A Single Man, The Last Station, and The Road. The above list looks even stronger after considering the other contenders.

I think I need some guidance on the animated and foreign film categories from the Golden Globe nominees tomorrow, so prepare for an overhauled list of predictions, unless there aren’t many surprises, next Monday.