Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe

Welcome to a new weekly feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. It’s a bit early to be able to accurately predict the eventual Oscar nominees, but around this time, plenty of likely contenders are being released. I’ll be looking every Wednesday at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week. Until I begin my official predictions, I’ll be adding and removing contenders as their popularity, buzz, or reviews rise and fall. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section.

Fantastic Mr. Fox
This inventive film from director Wes Anderson, previously nominated for penning “The Royal Tenenbaums” is a strong contender in the Best Animated Feature category. The expansion of the field of nominees to five is helpful, but also problematic because there are more films (20) vying for a nomination. The Roald Dahl adaptation certainly stands out from the competition due to its stop-motion animation and impressive reviews, and I think it stands a great chance.

The Messenger
This independent drama has three talented performers in its cast who might be able to earn nominations. Dave Karger of Entertainment Weekly thinks so, placing them as alternates for his predictions. Woody Harrelson, who also headlined “Zombieland” earlier this fall, was nominated for playing Larry Flynt in 1996. Ben Foster hasn’t yet earned much awards attention, but his role in “3:10 to Yuma” a few years ago earned him positive mentions and this could be his true breakout part. Samantha Morton is a two-time nominee, for “Sweet and Lowdown” and “In America,” and in the latter case she came out of nowhere at the very end of the race after predictors all but gave up on her chances. Ultimately, I think the film is too small, but in the emptier supporting categories, it may have a shot.

2012
This film definitely isn’t going to be winning any awards for its storyline or script, but the aesthetic elements are a different story. It’s not as if it will contend for art direction or cinematography, but it could be rewarded for its sound and sound editing. The best chance it has is for Best Visual Effects, which is what most of the production budget likely went into, but there are plenty of other films, like “Watchmen,” “Star Trek,” and “District 9” that could push it out.

Pirate Radio
This British film didn’t receive overwhelmingly supportive reviews, despite its prestigious cast, which includes past winner Philip Seymour Hoffman, past nominee Kenneth Branagh, and Golden Globe winner Bill Nighy. The first film from director Richard Curtis, “Love Actually,” didn’t score any Oscar nominations despite being receiving a Golden Globe mention for Best Screenplay, and this one doesn’t seem as popular. Writer-director Richard Curtis was nominated in 1994 for writing “Four Wedding and a Funeral,” but that film was also up for Best Picture, while this one just isn’t strong enough to make the cut.

Independent releases from this week like Uncertainty, Dare, and Women in Trouble won’t make it onto Oscar voters’ radar, and documentaries Oh My God, Ten9Eight: Shoot for the Moon, and William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe shouldn’t kick up much dirt either..

I’ll be skipping next week for Thanksgiving to make way for Golden Globe predictions, but be sure to come back the following Wednesday for a look at the next two Fridays’ theatrical releases and their Oscar chances. And remember to offer your thoughts on the chances for these films in the comments!