Golden Globe Musings: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
TOM CRUISE, TROPIC THUNDER
ROBERT DOWNEY JR., TROPIC THUNDER
RALPH FIENNES, THE DUCHESS
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT

This year’s pool:
Unless something goes horribly wrong, the incredible Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds) should waltz his way to a nomination as the only sure thing in this category. Up next is Matt Damon (Invictus), who is rumored to be great in Clint Eastwood’s forthcoming biopic. Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones, Julie & Julia) has two films that could net him a nomination, and he probably has a better shot for the latter film here since the Globes tend to like comedies. Him being a double nominee just doesn’t seem likely, though it has happened in this category before – Dennis Hopper in 1986, with nods for both “Hoosiers” and “Blue Velvet” (the former resulted in an Oscar nomination). If voters remember who’s in the movie, Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker) might place, but it’s unlikely. Several films have multiple contenders, like Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard (An Education) and Christopher Plummer and Paul Giamatti (The Last Station). Past nominee Steve Martin (It’s Complicated) could end up here for his presumably fun performance in Nora Ephron’s movie, while Richard Kind (A Serious Man) could earn his first nomination after a career of steady work. Woody Harrelson (The Messenger) may also contend if anyone has seen his film. There’s some buzz for Zach Galifianakis (The Hangover), though I can’t imagine that happening. I’d keep an eye out for young actor Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Road), though I’m really not sure the film will be wholeheartedly embraced. People seem to really like Paul Schneider (Bright Star), and his nomination could be along the same lines as Ralph Fiennes' last year. This category will likely bring a big surprise or two, something along the lines of Tom Cruise’s nomination last year – maybe Jude Law (Sherlock Holmes)? After seeing the trailer, I'm inclined to think that Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles) is poised for an upset.

Predicted nominees:
MATT DAMON, INVICTUS
CHRISTIAN MCKAY, ME AND ORSON WELLES
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER, THE LAST STATION
STANLEY TUCCI, JULIE & JULIA
CHRISTOPH WALTZ, INGLORIOUS BASTERDS