Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DOUBT
FROST/NIXON
THE READER
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

This year’s pool:
Last year, all five nominees were adaptations. The Globes don’t distinguish between original and adapted screenplays and lumps them together, and sometimes the winner doesn’t even get nominated in either Oscar category (“About Schmidt,” “The People vs. Larry Flynt”). Usually the contenders have corresponding Best Picture nods, but there’s usually one that’s not (“Doubt,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “Notes on a Scandal,” “Munich”). This year, the frontrunner is probably Precious, which is adapted from a novel and should garner mass acclaim if there isn’t a backlash. Once the Best Picture frontrunners become clear (as in when nominations are announced), this category is much easier to predict. Unfortunately, both are announced at the same time and therefore guesses must be made now. Up in the Air, Invictus, An Education, A Serious Man, A Single Man and The Lovely Bones, The Last Station probably have the best bet, whereas films like The Hurt Locker and Nine may not be recognized for their writing specifically. Inglorious Basterds might also pop up if voters are in a fun mood. Animated films just don’t get nominated in this category, so save Up for the Oscar list. I don’t trust the chances of 500 Days of Summer and have little faith in comedies like It’s Complicated and The Hangover to place here.

Predicted nominees:
AN EDUCATION
THE LAST STATION
INVICTUS
PRECIOUS
A SERIOUS MAN