Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The nominees:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Reader

My ballot: 4/5 (TBA soon)
Who should win: Hathaway
Who will win: This race vexes me quite a bit, because I fear that Winslet will take home her first Oscar for a movie she really doesn’t deserve to win an Oscar for, at least not in the leading race, whereas I would have supported a win for her role in “Revolutionary Road.” Especially with Sally Hawkins out of the race, Hathaway far and way deserves to win this, but I’m trying to be more realistic with my predictions this year than ever before, so I think it’s entirely more likely that Streep will be the one to beat Winslet. I’ll sadly stick with Winslet, but acknowledge that she is a good actress and I suppose this performance isn’t bad, it’s just not better than any of these other four.