Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

I haven’t managed to correctly predict all five Best Picture nominees yet, missing “Master and Commander” in my first predictions in 2003 and getting worse since then. This year, for the first time, I’m going against all my hopes and opting for the most likely, most boring list. In the past two years I’ve cast doubt on “Babel,” “The Queen,” “Michael Clayton,” and “There Will Be Blood” because I didn’t really like them all that much, predicting instead my favorites like “Children of Men,” “United 93,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” and “Into the Wild.” There isn’t actually any movie that I’d love to see get nominated that has any remote shot since chances for Changeling and Rachel Getting Married went down the drain a while ago. Golden Globe hits The Reader and Revolutionary Road have lost buzz since then, and while either could bounce back on Thursday, I doubt it. Both Doubt and The Wrestler have been garnering acting nods but not too many Best Picture mentions. The top five will likely match up exactly with the PGA and DGA lists: Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and The Dark Knight. While I liked “The Dark Knight,” I don’t think it’s deserving of such praise or a Best Picture nomination, but I think universal guild love for the film has solidified its spot. I would be overjoyed if its spot went to another popular success which, if nominated, would become the second animated film ever to make the top Oscar list: Wall-E. It’s hard to hate, and easy to love, but can it overcome the animated handicap? If it gets nominated, I think it could even beat the unstoppable “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Final predictions:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE