Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

This race is pretty much down to seven males. The chance of an upset by Benicio Del Toro (Che), Josh Brolin (W), and Golden Globe winner Colin Farrell (In Bruges) is extremely low. If for some reason “Che” has a ton of support, Del Toro could sneak in but I just don’t think there’s any room for him or that the movie has enough ardent fans that saw it. The three safe bets are Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), and Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon). Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) is likely out of the running unless his film makes a startling comeback when the nominations are announced. Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) has managed to get a Globe and SAG nomination but I simply don’t think the performance is strong enough. He doesn’t hold up especially when compared to two veteran actors whose careers haven’t yet afforded them much opportunity to be recognized for their acting skills. Consider Pitt’s situation when compared to Paul Giammati in 2004, who was all but assured a nomination then lost his spot on nomination day to Clint Eastwood for “Million Dollar Baby.” That film, however, was a Best Picture contender and the eventual winner, while “Gran Torino” didn’t really catch fire with critics and awards bodies as much. Eastwood hasn’t yet been nominated for any real major award save for winner the National Board of Review trophy for Best Actor. The other wild card is Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), whose movie came out very early in the year though his SAG nomination indicates that he may still have a great shot. I’m content to predict both Eastwood and Jenkins for the final slot. At this point, I think Eastwood, if he does get nominated, will eventually eclipse Rourke to win the award. If Eastwood doesn’t make it, I feel like Rourke is the definitive frontrunner.

Final predictions:
CLINT EASTWOOD, GRAN TORINO
RICHARD JENKINS, THE VISITOR
FRANK LANGELLA, FROST/NIXON
SEAN PENN, MILK
MICKEY ROURKE, THE WRESTLER