Saturday, January 24, 2009

SAG Winner Predictions: Film Categories

After the Golden Globes, I’m pretty convinced that Mickey Rourke, Heath Ledger, and Kate Winslet (for her supporting performance in “The Reader”) are fairly safe to win SAG awards and Oscars. “Milk” bounced back from Globe snubs with lots of guild love and that could be a good thing for star Sean Penn, but the same thing happened to Philip Seymour Hoffman with “Capote” back in 2005 and he still managed to win the Golden Globe as the film’s sole nominee. More importantly, he didn’t have a comeback turn like Rourke’s to compete with. Some say that Richard Jenkins has a shot because this is the awards body that recognizes lifetime achievement like last year with Ruby Dee, but I think that Rourke’s achievement is on par with it in voters’ minds. Ledger takes the cake without question, and Winslet likely beats Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis in a fairly unexciting supporting category. As far as the best actress race is concerned, I think it’s wide open. I doubt Angelina Jolie could win, but Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet are respected veterans, and both Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo delivered breakout lead performances that should completely erase any previous conceptions of their work. I’d like to bet on a surprise victory by Leo here, though I doubt that it would really happen. Hathaway is probably more likely, and Streep is probably safest. It’s an unpredictable category at this point. Best ensemble is equally puzzling because four of the casts, “Benjamin Button,” “Doubt,” “Frost/Nixon,” and “Milk,” contain many powerhouse actors in both lead and supporting roles. I think that the completely unknown cast of Slumdog Millionaire actually has the best chance to win, given the film’s momentum and the unlikelihood of any of the other films garnering enough support to manage a victory. This award does sometimes go to the cast that best works together, like in 2001 for “Gosford Park” or in 1997 for “The Full Monty.” The fresh ensemble of “Slumdog” is incredibly impressive, though the lack of any big names could lead to a win for…? I don’t even know, maybe “Doubt.”

Note: This year, I won’t be watching the SAG Awards because they’re not being shown in Italy.

Winner predictions:
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Ensemble: Slumdog Millionaire

Friday, January 23, 2009

Oscar Nominations

I was able to watch the Oscar nominations announcement being streamed live today at 2:30pm Italy time (5:30am in California), and therefore was able to participate in the collective shock over the announcement of the fifth Best Picture nominee. Most, including myself, were predicting “The Dark Knight,” others thought perhaps “Wall-E” or “Revolutionary Road” or “Gran Torino” could upset. It turns out it was the so-so “The Reader,” which proves entirely unexciting. It was a fairly good film that worked despite a number of flaws, but it’s hardly a thrilling choice. Looking at the list of Best Picture nominees, I actually find that I liked each one (The Reader, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon) and really enjoyed another one (Milk) and loved another one (Slumdog Millionaire). While none of them make my top five, the last one is my definitive runner-up and sixth favorite film of the year. Overall, it’s a decent list, but the inclusion of something bright and sunny like “Wall-E” would have made it all the more fun. Additionally, the 5 for 5 matchup between Best Picture and Best Director is incredibly lame, especially considering that none of the movies nominated (with the exception of “Slumdog Millionaire”) represent an extraordinary directorial achievement. Last year, while Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) and Jason Reitman (Juno) didn’t quite fit that bill, the work done by the Coen brothers (No Country for Old Men), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) certainly did. This year, all the films were very good, but as directorial feats, I would have found someone like Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married) or Ari Folman (Waltz with Bashir) much more fitting.

The nominations list as a whole has some surprises, but none of them are that intriguing or completely unexpected. Brad Pitt made it in over Clint Eastwood for Best Actor, which is rather disappointing. “Benjamin Button” got a staggering 13 nominations, in every single technical category it could except for sound editing, and that as a whole feels sort of over-praised. I would much rather have seen “Slumdog Millionaire” reap such an achievement. The real shocking love was for “The Reader,” which garnered star Kate Winslet a nomination in the lead category rather than in supporting. Many were outraged at her classification as a supporting actress, though I thought it was fine. I am quite certain that her performance in “Revolutionary Road” was far better, and if she wins an Oscar this year, it will be for the wrong movie. The love for “The Reader” really backfired on “Revolutionary Road,” which missed out on cinematography and its lead performances, landing nominations for costume design, art direction, and bit-part supporting actor Michael Shannon, whose performance I found adequate but hardly noteworthy.

Check out the full list of nominations here. Some bulleted, categorized thoughts below:

Sucks to be… “Australia,” which despite exhaustively prepared landscapes received one nomination for costume design
Sucks to be… “Rachel Getting Married,” which had a terrific script, fantastic cinematography, and a knockout supporting performance from Rosemarie Dewitt (and Bill Irwin, for that matter) but only got recognized for star Anne Hathaway, who was of course excellent
Sucks to be… “Happy-Go-Lucky,” which recently won a Golden Globe for star Sally Hawkins and tons of critics awards for Eddie Marsan but walked away with only a screenplay nomination
Best category: Best Original Screenplay, thinking outside the box and honoring the smart script for “Milk” and four dazzlingly original works – “Frozen River,” “Happy-Go-Lucky,” “In Bruges,” and “Wall-E” rather than disappointing rehashes by great directors like “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and “Burn After Reading”
Worst category: Best Supporting Actress. I could appreciate Kate Winslet’s performance in “The Reader,” but now that it’s transplanted to the lead race, I can’t say I’m remotely impressed with any of these turns. Amy Adams was too damn cheery and unserious in “Doubt,” Viola Davis (who I really just don’t like in general) didn’t add anything to “Doubt” in her twelve minutes onscreen, Marisa Tomei didn’t get into her character enough in “The Wrestler,” Penelope Cruz was just goofing off in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” and Taraji P. Henson, who has promise as an actress, didn’t do anything award-worthy in her small role in “Benjamin Button,” where the performances weren’t the strongest part, contrary to what Oscar voters would have you think. Where are Rosemarie DeWitt, Elsa Zylberstein, Alexis Zygerman, Anjelica Huston, Freida Pinto, or any of the “Synecdoche, New York” ladies?
Most shocking snub: Bruce Springsteen in the Best Original Song category for his title theme to “The Wrestler.” This continues the recent trend of Golden Globe winners in that category being snubbed come Oscar time. It’s always sad when the category has only three nominees, but I’m actually quite happy with the list (“Down to Earth” from “Wall-E” and both songs from “Slumdog Millionaire”)
Worst snub: In the Best Makeup category, “Synecdoche, New York” was easily as good as or better than that in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “The Dark Knight” (which was really just Heath Ledger’s face). I haven’t seen “Hellboy 2: The Golden Army” but so many people aged so magnificently in “Synecdoche, New York,” which was also left out of Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction, and Best Original Song (Little Person)
Biggest slap in the face: “Iron Man” gets snubbed in both Best Sound and Best Film Editing, and can’t even match the far-inferior “Transformers” tally from last year, managing only two nominations for Best Sound Editing and Best Visual Effects
Best surprise inclusion: “Wanted” for Best Sound and Best Sound Editing. That movie had some pretty darn good noises. I enjoyed the film a lot too, so with the absence of “Cloverfield,” it’s good to see some pure entertainment included here

My current bets to win (to be revisited before the ceremony): Slumdog, Boyle, Rourke, Hathaway, Ledger, Davis, In Bruges, Slumdog Millionaire (screenplays), Wall-E (animated), Man on Wire (documentary), and Waltz with Bashir (foreign)

Exciting statistic: I did much better than ever before this year on my predictions. Two years ago, I predicted 53% of the nominees correctly, last year 59%, and this year I'm all the way up to 73%, or 71/97. The funny thing is that my realistic selection of "The Dark Knight" for the top two awards didn't actually help my stats. Still, I'm happy, and next year with more time to focus on the Oscar race, hopefully I'll do even better.

The SAG Awards air this Sunday night, as another big indicator of who may be Oscar frontrunners. Although if Winslet wins both awards again, who knows how things will play out come Oscar night.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Final Oscar Predictions

This is the final stretch before the Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday morning. I’m trying to be the most realistic I’ve ever been in the hopes of finally getting 5/5 on the Best Picture list and a generally better score than I usually get. I’m still hoping that “The Dark Knight” will falter in its path to Oscar glory only because it just wasn’t everything everyone says it was. I’m not saying it wasn’t good – it just wasn’t that good. I’m predicting 11 nominations apiece for top contenders “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” followed by “The Dark Knight” with 10 and “Wall-E” and “Milk” with 6 each. These are my final predictions, and I’d like to make 3 wonderful no guts, no glory predictions, any of which would put a smile on my face:

WALTZ WITH BASHIR for Best Director
EDDIE MARSAN for Best Supporting Actor
FREIDA PINTO for Best supporting Actress

I’m not sure how reliable Internet access will be on Thursday what with the time difference and unstable Internet here, so my considerably briefer-than-usual reactions will be posted when I can. And now, my predictions:

Best Picture
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


Best Actor in a Leading Role
CLINT EASTWOOD, GRAN TORINO
RICHARD JENKINS, THE VISITOR
FRANK LANGELLA, FROST/NIXON
SEAN PENN, MILK
MICKEY ROURKE, THE WRESTLER


Best Actress in a Leading Role
ANNE HATHAWAY, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
SALLY HAWKINS, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
MELISSA LEO, FROZEN RIVER
MERYL STREEP, DOUBT
KATE WINSLET, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD


Best Actor in a Supporting Role
JOSH BROLIN, MILK
ROBERT DOWNEY JR, TROPIC THUNDER
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
DEV PATEL, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


Best Actress in a Supporting Role
AMY ADAMS, DOUBT
PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT
ROSEMARIE DEWITT, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
KATE WINSLET, THE READER


Best Director
DANNY BOYLE, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
DAVID FINCHER, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
RON HOWARD, FROST/NIXON
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, THE DARK KNIGHT
GUS VAN SANT, MILK


Best Original Screenplay
IN BRUGES
MILK
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
WALL-E


Best Adapted Screenplay
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DOUBT
FROST/NIXON
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


Best Cinematography
AUSTRALIA
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


Best Art Direction
AUSTRALIA
CHANGELING
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


Best Costume Design
AUSTRALIA
CHANGELING
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DUCHESS
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD


Best Film Editing
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
IRON MAN
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE


Best Sound
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
IRON MAN
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
WALL-E


Best Sound Editing
THE DARK KNIGHT
IRON MAN
WALL-E
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
(if 5 nominees)
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (if 5 nominees)

Best Visual Effects
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
IRON MAN


Best Makeup
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK


Best Song
“Gran Torino” from GRAN TORINO
“Jai Ho” from SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
“O Saya” from SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
“Down to Earth” from WALL-E
“The Wrestler” from THE WRESTLER

Best Original Score
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
WALL-E


Best Documentary
BLESSED IS THE MATCH
I.O.U.S.A.
MAN ON WIRE
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE
TROUBLE THE WATER


Best Foreign Film
THE BAADER MEINHOF COMPLEX
THE CLASS
EVERLASTING MOMENTS
REVANCHE
WALL-E


Best Animated Film
KUNG FU PANDA
WALL-E
WALTZ WITH BASHIR
BOLT
(if 5 nominees)
MADAGASCAR 2 (if 5 nominees)

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture


I haven’t managed to correctly predict all five Best Picture nominees yet, missing “Master and Commander” in my first predictions in 2003 and getting worse since then. This year, for the first time, I’m going against all my hopes and opting for the most likely, most boring list. In the past two years I’ve cast doubt on “Babel,” “The Queen,” “Michael Clayton,” and “There Will Be Blood” because I didn’t really like them all that much, predicting instead my favorites like “Children of Men,” “United 93,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” and “Into the Wild.” There isn’t actually any movie that I’d love to see get nominated that has any remote shot since chances for Changeling and Rachel Getting Married went down the drain a while ago. Golden Globe hits The Reader and Revolutionary Road have lost buzz since then, and while either could bounce back on Thursday, I doubt it. Both Doubt and The Wrestler have been garnering acting nods but not too many Best Picture mentions. The top five will likely match up exactly with the PGA and DGA lists: Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and The Dark Knight. While I liked “The Dark Knight,” I don’t think it’s deserving of such praise or a Best Picture nomination, but I think universal guild love for the film has solidified its spot. I would be overjoyed if its spot went to another popular success which, if nominated, would become the second animated film ever to make the top Oscar list: Wall-E. It’s hard to hate, and easy to love, but can it overcome the animated handicap? If it gets nominated, I think it could even beat the unstoppable “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Final predictions:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Oscar Predictions: Best Director


I’m saddened to predict a 5/5 match-up between Best Picture and Best Director, especially since the last three times that’s happened was in 1957, 1981, and 2005. It’s also very unexciting. A year like this with impressive directors like Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married), Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road), Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), and Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino & Changeling) makes it even more of a shame that none of them are at all likely to get nominated. Some prognosticators are guessing Andrew Stanton (Wall-E), though I don’t think this is where that film will get recognized. I know it would never happen, but I would be ecstatic if somehow Ari Folman (Waltz with Bashir) got his due for the most creative achievement of the year. Instead I expect the exact DGA list, which includes Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Gus Van Sant (Milk), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), and Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight). I think that, even if “The Dark Knight” falters in the Best Picture field, Nolan is safe here. Howard and Van Sant are probably the most vulnerable for a shocking snub a la Peter Jackson in 2002 for the second “Lord of the Rings” installment. I think Demme is the most likely to take one of their places, although Leigh last did in 2004 (Vera Drake) and could become a regular director-without-picture nominee like Woody Allen. No matter who gets nominated, Boyle is sure to win.

Final predictions:
DANNY BOYLE, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
DAVID FINCHER, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
RON HOWARD, FROST/NIXON
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, THE DARK KNIGHT
GUS VAN SANT, MILK

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role


Like Best Supporting Actor, I don’t feel that great about any of these contenders. Vera Farmiga (Nothing but the Truth) is in a movie no one saw, and it’s just too infinitesimally small to manage a nomination. Oscar veteran Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married) could surprise, but the film has shaky support and aside from Bill Irwin, she’s the least likely cast member to get a nomination. Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) scored a SAG nomination, though I don’t think she’ll make it all the way to Oscar. The same goes for Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler), whose performance just didn’t have much substance. Viola Davis and Amy Adams (Doubt) both have Globe and SAG nominations, and while many doubt Adams’ chances, I think that she will make it in, just like Cate Blanchett last year in the lead actress category for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” I’d be ecstatic if Davis didn’t get nominated for her meager twelve-minute performance, but I know I’m pretty much alone in my distaste for the actress and her performance. Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) gave a wacky performance in Woody Allen’s latest film that seems to have won over enough people to assure her a spot. Kate Winslet (The Reader) just won two Golden Globes, and unless for some reason voters opt to place her in the lead category for this film as well as “Revolutionary Road,” she should be safe. The last slot, assuming Tomei and Henson won’t make it, is between two contenders who don’t quite have the precursor support but may score nominations like Samantha Morton and Djimon Hounsou in 2003 for “In America.” I’d personally be thrilled if either of them made it in since I adored both of their performances. Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire) is a total newcomer whose breakthrough performance in the most buzz-worthy movie of the year should be the one getting recognized instead of costar Dev Patel. I’m thinking that spot number five will go instead to Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married) was incredible as the title character in one of the best movies of the year. The Oscars might just be the chance for her to step out of her onscreen sister Anne Hathaway’s shadow. Assuming the list below, I’m betting on Kate Winslet to take home the gold.

Final predictions:
AMY ADAMS, DOUBT
PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT
ROSEMARIE DEWITT, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
KATE WINSLET, THE READER

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role


This year, the supporting categories, in stark contrast to the leading ones, have felt empty and devoid of serious contenders throughout the whole Oscar season. Ralph Fiennes has garnered buzz for two of his performances (The Duchess & The Reader), though neither is terribly strong and I imagine voters will be very much split over which one to vote for, and some might even choose his terrific performance in “In Bruges.” Despite some scene-stealing, Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) hasn’t been hitting it too big thus far, and unless the film is beloved by Oscar voters, Shannon probably won’t make it in. Even if “Milk” gets a boatload of nominations, including for costar Josh Brolin, I don’t think that this is where James Franco gets his first Oscar nomination for this part. The two locks in this category are Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt). Though I’m still not sure I can believe it, it sure looks like Robert Downey Jr. will in fact get an Oscar nomination for his preposterous, terrific comic performance in the dismal “Tropic Thunder.” Even if it’s in no way a supporting role, Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) looks like the guy to take the fifth slot. A 5/5 match-up between the SAG and Oscar lineups is rare, but are there any other contenders? I’m not bold enough to predict it, but look out for Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky). He’s a fantastic foil to Sally Hawkins’ nonstop bubble of happiness in Mike Leigh’s wonderfully entertaining film, and he’s racked up a surprisingly high amount of critics’ prizes. It would be truly awesome if that performance got nominated for an Oscar since it’s so not designed as that kind of role. Winner prediction no matter who’s nominated: Ledger.

Final predictions:
JOSH BROLIN, MILK
ROBERT DOWNEY JR, TROPIC THUNDER
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
DEV PATEL, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Monday, January 19, 2009

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role


Like Best Actor, this race is down to seven leading ladies with three extremely unlikely spoilers waiting in the wings. I think I’m one of the very few people who have seen performances by Kate Beckinsale (Nothing but the Truth) and Michelle Williams (Wendy and Lucy), and in a less crowded year, they might even have a decent shot. If voters go wild for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Cate Blanchett could capitalize on its popularity and get recognized in the same way that stars Brad Pitt and Taraji P. Henson have for what are, in my opinion, sub par performances. Interestingly enough, there’s only one secure lock, and that’s 14-time nominee Meryl Streep (Doubt). I’d like to consider Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) just as safe, but recent snubs by different organizations have me a bit worried. Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long) seemed like a much stronger contender a little while back, and while it’s very possible she could benefit from vote splitting among other actresses, I’m not going to bet on her. Kate Winslet is on the top of the world right now after twin Golden Globe wins, and her position has been solidified now, with only one major potential factor standing in her way. I think that her role in “The Reader” has been firmly accepted as a supporting one, though if voters can’t decide between that and “Revolutionary Road,” she may not garner enough votes for either. I’m fairly certain she will prevail and end up a double nominee. Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky) just won the Golden Globe, though like Hathaway, she got snubbed a whole lot than she should have. I think it’s a popular enough performance that she shouldn’t have a tremendous amount of trouble getting in. Most prognosticators are betting on Angelina Jolie (Changeling) since she has managed both a Globe and a SAG nomination. Last year Jolie had the same stats for a more universally-supported film (A Mighty Heart) and then missed out on nomination day. In years past, Paul Giammati (Sideways), Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen), Richard Gere (Chicago), and others have been snubbed after getting in with both precursors. While I liked both of Jolie’s performances and would love to see her nominated, I just think the category is too crowded. My pick for the fifth slot is Melissa Leo (Frozen River), whose performance had people like Quentin Tarantino talking this summer. A SAG nomination showed that people haven’t completely forgotten about her, so maybe she’ll be able to sneak in. This is a volatile category, and any seven actresses could easily comprise the list of nominees. These nominees are all very competitive, and with this list, I’ll predict Hathaway right now for the eventual win.

Final predictions:
ANNE HATHAWAY, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
SALLY HAWKINS, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
MELISSA LEO, FROZEN RIVER
MERYL STREEP, DOUBT
KATE WINSLET, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role


This race is pretty much down to seven males. The chance of an upset by Benicio Del Toro (Che), Josh Brolin (W), and Golden Globe winner Colin Farrell (In Bruges) is extremely low. If for some reason “Che” has a ton of support, Del Toro could sneak in but I just don’t think there’s any room for him or that the movie has enough ardent fans that saw it. The three safe bets are Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), and Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon). Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) is likely out of the running unless his film makes a startling comeback when the nominations are announced. Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) has managed to get a Globe and SAG nomination but I simply don’t think the performance is strong enough. He doesn’t hold up especially when compared to two veteran actors whose careers haven’t yet afforded them much opportunity to be recognized for their acting skills. Consider Pitt’s situation when compared to Paul Giammati in 2004, who was all but assured a nomination then lost his spot on nomination day to Clint Eastwood for “Million Dollar Baby.” That film, however, was a Best Picture contender and the eventual winner, while “Gran Torino” didn’t really catch fire with critics and awards bodies as much. Eastwood hasn’t yet been nominated for any real major award save for winner the National Board of Review trophy for Best Actor. The other wild card is Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), whose movie came out very early in the year though his SAG nomination indicates that he may still have a great shot. I’m content to predict both Eastwood and Jenkins for the final slot. At this point, I think Eastwood, if he does get nominated, will eventually eclipse Rourke to win the award. If Eastwood doesn’t make it, I feel like Rourke is the definitive frontrunner.

Final predictions:
CLINT EASTWOOD, GRAN TORINO
RICHARD JENKINS, THE VISITOR
FRANK LANGELLA, FROST/NIXON
SEAN PENN, MILK
MICKEY ROURKE, THE WRESTLER

Friday, January 16, 2009

Movie Blog On Hold

I'm currently in Florence adjusting to my surroundings, and I doubt I'll be seeing any movies anytime soon. I'll be back infrequently over the next few weeks with SAG Awards winner predictions, Oscar nominee predictions, and perhaps even my own awards if I have time.

If you're interested in following my personal adventures, visit my Florence blog.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical


The competition: Top-secret files cause problems for numerous imbeciles in “Burn After Reading,” an eternally optimistic woman lives her life in “Happy-Go-Lucky,” two hitmen hide out in Belgium after a botched hit in “In Bruges,” daughters, mothers, and potential fathers sing for no reason in “Mamma Mia,” and two women on vacation in Spain meet a wealthy suitor in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.”
For your information: The past three winners in this category, “Sweeney Todd,” “Dreamgirls,” and “Walk the Line,” have not gone on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” has three of its performers nominated, “In Bruges” has two, and the rest have one. Interestingly enough, the Coen brothers and Woody Allen have only one Golden Globe Best Picture winner among them, and it’s Allen’s “Hannah and her Sisters,” which claimed the top comedy prize in 1986.
Who should win: “Happy-Go-Lucky,” but I’d be thrilled about “In Bruges” just as much
Who will win: I’m not so sure about “Mamma Mia!” (too awful), “Happy-Go-Lucky” (too small), and “In Bruges” (too weird). That leaves two mildly entertaining, so-so films, and based on the shocking nomination for star Rebecca Hall, I’d guess that Vicky Cristina Barcelona has a whole lot of supporters.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama


The competition: A man ages backwards in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Richard Nixon gets his actions probed in “Frost/Nixon,” a young man questions the ethics of his mistress in “The Reader,” an unhappy couple plan an escape from their lives in “Revolutionary Road,” and a young kid’s life story is told through this answers on a game show in “Slumdog Millionaire.”
For your information: The past few years, serious films like “The Aviator,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Babel,” and “Atonement” have triumphed over more enjoyable eventual Oscar winners “Million Dollar Baby,” “Crash,” “The Departed,” and “No Country for Old Men.” Since 1964, the winner of this award has gone on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. All five films here are nominated for Best Director, and four are up for Best Screenplay (not “Revolutionary Road”). “Benjamin Button” and “Frost/Nixon” lead the nominations this year with five apiece.
Who should win: I loved “Slumdog Millionaire” and think it should certainly top this award.
Who will win: Based on the history of the past few years, I’ll predict The Curious Case of Benjamin Button over favorite “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Friday, January 9, 2009

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Animated Film


The competition: “Bolt,” “Kung Fu Panda,” and “WALL-E”
For your information: This is only the third year of this category. “Ratatouille” and “Cars” won the previous two years. It’s irrelevant, but both “Bolt” and “WALL-E” are also nominated for Best Original Song.
Who should win: No contest, “WALL-E”
Who will win: No contest, WALL-E

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Film


The competition: “The Baader Meinhof Complex” from Germany, “Gomorra” from Italy, “I’ve Loved You So Long” from France, “Everlasting Moments” from Sweden, and “Waltz with Bashir” from Israel.
For your information: The past three winners in this category did not go on to win the Oscar. “Paradise Now” lost to “Tsotsi” at the Academy Awards, and “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” and “Letters from Iwo Jima” were ineligible. Out of this year’s crop, only “I’ve Loved You So Long” is ineligible for the Oscar. France submitted the heavily overrated but entirely inferior “The Class” instead.
Who should win: I’ve only seen “I’ve Loved You So Long” and “Waltz with Bashir,” and the latter is my favorite film of the year.
Who will win: I’ve been hearing great things about “Gomorra,” but the recent selection by the National Society of Film Critics of Waltz with Bashir as their Best Picture choice gives me faith that it can win.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song


The competition: Miley Cyrus and Jeffrey Steele for “I Thought I Lost You” (Bolt), Beyoncé and co. for “Once in a Lifetime” (Cadillac Records), Clint Eastwood and co. for “Gran Torino” (Gran Torino), Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman for “Down to Earth” (WALL-E), and Bruce Springsteen for “The Wrestler” (The Wrestler)
For your information: Springsteen won a Golden Globe in 1993 for the song “Streets of Philadelphia” from “Philadelphia.” Gabriel has been nominated previously for two of his scores. Beyoncé was nominated in this category for the song “Listen” from “Dreamgirls” in 2006. Eastwood was nominated in this category last year for the title song from “Grace is Gone.
Who should win: My favorite among these is “Down to Earth.”
Who will win: I have to go with Bruce Springsteen.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Score


The competition: Clint Eastwood (Changeling), Alexandre Desplat (The Curious Case of Benjamin), James Newton Howard (Defiance), Hans Zimmer (Frost/Nixon), and A.R. Rahman (Slumdog Millionaire).
For your information: Desplat won before for “The Painted Veil” and Zimmer won for “The Lion King” and “Gladiator.” Eastwood has two previous nominations in this category and Howard has one.
Who should win: Probably Rahman
Who will win: Throwing Rahman into the mix shakes things up, but I think the score by Howard from Defiance will take the gold.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture


The competition: Eric Roth (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), John Patrick Shanley (Doubt), Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon), David Hare (The Reader), and Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)
For your information: All of these films except “Doubt” are up for the Best Motion Picture – Drama award.
Who should win: All fine scripts; “Slumdog Millionaire” is probably my favorite.
Who will win: I’ll go with Doubt.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture


The competition: David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road), and Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire).
For your information: Mendes won in 1999 for “American Beauty.” Dalrdy was previously nominated in 2004 for “The Hours.” Howard has never won, despite four nominations in different categories since 1976. All five films nominated here are up for the Best Motion Picture – Drama award.
Who should win: I’d choose Boyle.
Who will win: Tough call between entertaining (Slumdog Millionaire) and dramatic (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button). I’ll pick David Fincher for “Benjamin Button,” though I’m sure Danny Boyle will win the Oscar for “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture


The competition: Amy Adams’ innocent nun (Doubt), Penelope Cruz’s crazy ex-wife (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis’ protective mother (Doubt), Marisa Tomei’s conflicted stripper (The Wrestler), and Kate Winslet’s former Nazi (The Reader).
For your information: No one nominated here has ever won a Golden Globe.
Who should win: I don’t really like these nominees, and I think Winslet is the only one deserving of a victory.
Who will win: I have to hope that an unimpressive cameo from Davis doesn’t translate to a win, and otherwise I think it’s between Cruz and Winslet. I think Cruz comes out on top.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture


The competition: Tom Cruise’s slimy executive (Tropic Thunder), Robert Downey Jr.’s dedicated actor (Tropic Thunder), Ralph Fiennes’ stubborn duke (The Duchess), Philip Seymour Hoffman’s priest (Doubt), and Heath Ledger’s villainous Joker (The Dark Knight).
For your information: Downey won a Globe for “Ally McBeal.” Cruise has won three Globes. Hoffman won in 2005 for “Capote.” Fiennes is also nominated for the TV movie “Bernard and Doris” this year.
Who should win: Ledger or Hoffman is fine by me.
Who will win: I don’t think anyone can beat Ledger, but if anyone could, I’d put my money on Downey.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical


The competition: Rebecca Hall’s cautious traveler (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Sally Hawkins’ eternally happy schoolteacher (Happy-Go-Lucky), Frances McDormand’s idiotic blackmailer (Burn After Reading), Meryl Streep’s singing mother (Mamma Mia!), and Emma Thompson’s public relations worker (Last Chance Harvey).
For your information: Six-time winner Streep is also nominated in the drama category. Thompson has only one win for acting and McDormand has never won out of three nominations.
Who should win: Hawkins, without a doubt
Who will win: I’m really hoping that Hawkins legitimately wins over the completely undeserving Streep

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical


The competition: Javier Bardem’s Spanish playboy (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson’s hitmen-in-hiding (In Bruges), James Franco’s stoner on the run (Pineapple Express), and Dustin Hoffman’s down-on-his-luck American abroad (Last Chance Harvey).
For your information: Bardem won a Golden Globe last year. Franco won a Globe for playing Elvis back in 2003. Hoffman has won five Golden Globes since 1967.
Who should win: I’d be happy with Farrell, Gleeson, or Franco.
Who will win: I think Hoffman takes this one, but I’d love to see Franco somehow upset.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama


The competition: Anne Hathaway’s fresh-out-of-rehab sister (Rachel Getting Married), Angelina Jolie’s grieving mother (Changeling), Meryl Streep’s vigilant nun (Doubt), Kristin Scott Thomas’ troubled ex-con (I’ve Loved You So Long), and Kate Winslet’s dissatisfied 50s wife (Revolutionary Road).
For your information: Streep has a mammoth 23 nominations and 6 wins at the Golden Globes. Jolie has won three times. Winslet, despite 5 nominations, has never won.
Who should win: Hathaway
Who will win: Another tough field where Hathaway, Jolie, or Winslet could upset, but I don’t think anyone can take down Streep.

Update 1/11/09 2:45pm: I'm being optimistic, and predicting a victory for Hathaway, officially changing my prediction.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama


The competition: Leonardo DiCaprio’s discontent 50s husband (Revolutionary Road), Frank Langella’s Richard Nixon (Frost/Nixon), Sean Penn’s Harvey Milk (Milk), Brad Pitt’s backwards-aging Benjamin (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), and Mickey Rourke’s aging wrestler desperate for a comeback (The Wrestler).
For your information: DiCaprio and Penn have both won this category before, for “The Aviator” and “Mystic River,” respectively.
Who should win: Penn and Rourke both delivered stunning performances.
Who will win: It’s an impossible call between Penn, Rourke, and Langella. My gut tells me that Langella, whose film scored five nominations, will prevail here.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Mini-Review: Cadillac Records

Cadillac Records
Directed by Darnell Martin
Released December 5, 2008

“Cadillac Records” tells the story of a recording studio and the artists who came through it and then made it big and became famous. It’s a movie full of good music and interesting characters, but the pieces don’t translate to a coherent whole. By choosing to highlight the studio, the film fails to choose one figure to center itself on, and hopping from one singer to another and then back again is a jolting, unpleasant, and unsatisfactory experience. Adrien Brody stars as Leonard Chess, the self-absorbed club owner who founded Chess Records. His performance is akin to the one given by Jamie Foxx in “Dreamgirls” – completely irrelevant and not merit-worthy. Jeffrey Wright, who’s a true actor’s actor who has yet to get that big movie role, boroughs deep into the character of Muddy Waters, but the part just isn’t written that well. Beyoncé Knowles delivers a performance just like Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls,” where the singing is predictably good and the acting just isn’t quite there. Small roles from Mos Def as Chuck Berry and Eamonn Walker as Howlin’ Wolf are highlights of an otherwise unremarkable production. It’s a movie about music, but it simply can’t compare to other films that came before it. Nothing stands out and as a result the story it tells has a diminished impact.

C-

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Mini-Review: Four Christmases

Four Christmases
Directed by Seth Gordon
Released November 26, 2008

A holiday movie often means a contrived setup and uncreative plot. As far as “Four Christmases” go, it’s never been truer. A couple who usually ditch their families for the holidays find themselves grounded by bad weather and forced to spend time with all four of their parents. Robert Duvall, Sissy Spacek, Mary Steenburgen, and Jon Voight play the parents and while that’s an impressive lineup, these guys aren’t trying at all. They’ve all given terrific performances in the past, and this movie isn’t about performances, but it’s truly a waste of time. There a few laughs, mostly from the energetic Vince Vaughn, but otherwise, there’s little worthwhile. Reese Witherspoon, so perfect for “Legally Blonde,” is here reduced to a whiny, needy girlfriend who isn’t give enough to do. It’s not supposed to be a great movie, but it could have been a whole better than this with Witherspoon and Vaughn leading the charge.

D-

Friday, January 2, 2009

Film Review: Harvard Beats Yale 29-29

Harvard Beats Yale 29-29
Directed by Kevin Rafferty
Released November 19, 2008

I’m from Massachusetts. I can appreciate a surprise win by an underdog Boston sports team. Regardless of where you’re from, the 2004 Red Sox World Series win was certainly a memorable event. The significance of the 1968 Harvard versus Yale football game, however, is arguable. Director Kevin Rafferty hardly makes a compelling case for it in his new documentary, “Harvard Beats Yale 29-29.”

Non-fiction films have a vastly different agenda from fiction films, but there are certain criteria necessary for a good documentary. Some kind of intriguing event is key, a controversy is always a plus, and new, heretofore unseen evidence can provide a real kicker. A conclusion is also nice. The final game between two undefeated Ivy League sports teams might be memorable to some, and realistically sparked Rafferty’s interest as a valid documentary subject, since he was in the stands during the game as a Harvard student. What’s missing from the movie, and what he fails to produce, is anything to supplement or explain this unexpected comeback. True sports fans might enjoy watching snippets of the game, but the commentary is entirely unmoving.

A movie about sports should focus on sports. It is more often than not merely a bunch of sixty-year-olds struggling to recall what exactly was going on during the fateful 1968 game, but even more crucially, the questions posed by Rafferty are desperately and unsubtly aimed at sparking celebrity name recognition. One former Yale player notes in passing that his girlfriend at the time was Meryl Streep, and a whole minute is devoted to zooming on a photograph to prove that yes, in fact this is Meryl Streep when she was younger. Another Yale alumnus recalls that George W. Bush was once his roommate, a fact that’s amusing but completely irrelevant to the story. Tommy Lee Jones, who pauses dramatically for minutes at a time and wears the gravest expression on his face, is the only interview subject who seems put off by Rafferty’s celebrity worship and is confused by Rafferty’s probing questions about this then-roommate Al Gore.

The movie does succeed with one shout-out to a famous person – “Doonesbury” comic creator Garry Trudeau. Though all of the former football players have little, if anything, to say about him in their current commentary, they explain that the Yale football team was the basis for Trudeau’s early strips. That concept helps to shed more light on the nature of the team and its players. Otherwise, Rafferty’s questions are unfocused and off-topic. The filming and particularly the editing are hopelessly amateurish, and this film should definitely not have been longer than an hour and a half (105 minutes is far too long). Rafferty chooses to splice in quotes and slow down footage to dramatically reshape an event which requires no editing. Watching the game on an ESPN Classic channel might be fine, but this just isn’t an appropriate subject for a film.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Mini-Review: Gardens of the Night

Gardens of the Night
Directed by Damian Harris
Released November 21, 2008

You probably haven’t heard of this movie, and you’re not alone. It’s a tiny independent film with pretty much nothing going for it. It’s a harrowing story of two young children abducted by a man who manipulates them into believing he cares about them. The only buzz-worthy thing about the movie is the casting of Tom Arnold as the pedophile, and it’s a decent enough performance but, like the film, not really worth mentioning. John Malkovich also makes a brief appearance and demonstrates in only minutes that he’s way better than this movie. The main problem is that it’s depressing and tragic without presenting anything compelling or inventive. There’s no light or hope at the end of the tunnel. Lead actress Gillian Jacobs shows some talent, but the role can’t really showcase whatever abilities she might have. It’s unlikely you’d be planning to see this movie, but just in case, don’t go out of your way to see it.

C-