WGA Nominees & The Screenplay Oscar Categories

I got 4/5 for each of the categories, predicting "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "Atonement" instead of "The Savages" and "Zodiac", both of which get a massive boost from their inclusions after pretty much sitting out the awards race to this point. This is really horrible for "Atonement", which is almost completely out of the race at this point. Even "Cold Mountain" managed a WGA nomination before falling from grace and missing the top spot at the Oscars. "Dreamgirls" last year did not get a WGA nod (not that it was expected to), but it did manage a DGA nod. Without either the DGA, WGA, or SAG, "Atonement" stands a last chance with the Producers Guild of America, which may not even help. As far as what might replace "Atonement" in the Best Picture lineup, sadly I think it will be "Michael Clayton". Ugh. Or maybe "There Will Be Blood". On to the screenplay categories for Oscar:

Best Original Screenplay

The contenders:
BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD
EASTERN PROMISES
JUNO
KNOCKED UP
LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
MICHAEL CLAYTON
RATATOUILLE
THE SAVAGES

That's pretty much it at this point. "Juno" is guaranteed, and I will now concede that "Michael Clayton" is pretty much locked too. I think that "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" will swoop in with a directing and writing nomination, knocking out...let's say "Lars and the Real Girl". I also see "Ratatouille " on the final list, and its omission from the WGA is irrelevant because no animated films get in there. What would it replace? Sadly I think "Knocked Up". Then we have the final slot - "The Savages" or "Eastern Promises"? I'm going with "Eastern Promises". To recap, my predictions are now: BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD, EASTERN PROMISES, JUNO, MICHAEL CLAYTON, and RATATOUILLE.

Best Adapted Screenplay
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
ATONEMENT
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
INTO THE WILD
THE KITE RUNNER
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD
ZODIAC

So pretty much four of these nominees are definites: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly", "Into the Wild", "No Country for Old Men", and "There Will Be Blood". Much as I feel that my own biases may be influencing my predictions, I cannot see "Zodiac" getting in at the Oscars. I think that "The Kite Runner" may surprise here, undeservedly in my opinion, though I have not read the book, so I do not know for sure. I am torn because I feel like "Atonement" could slip in just for screenplay, but I find that unlikely. "The Assassination of Jesse James" is also unlikely, but you never know. For the moment, I will put in "The Kite Runner" with "Atonement" as my close alternate. To recap: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY, INTO THE WILD, THE KITE RUNNER, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, and THERE WILL BE BLOOD.

The Producers Guild of America is the only real one that remains, and if "Atonement" wins the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama, get excited! We will have a real unpredictable race on our hands.