Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The remaining contenders;
RUBY DEE, AMERICAN GANGSTER
SAOIRSE RONAN, ATONEMENT
AMY RYAN, GONE BABY GONE
CATE BLANCHETT, I’M NOT THERE
CATHERINE KEENER, INTO THE WILD
TILDA SWINTON, MICHAEL CLAYTON

You never know:
VANESSA REDGRAVE, ATONEMENT
MARISA TOMEI, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
JENNIFER GARNER, JUNO
KELLY MACDONALD, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Ryan and Blanchett are in for sure. Swinton seems locked as well. Globe choice Julia Roberts is out, but can Ronan break back in, or will SAG favorites Dee and Keener take the remaining two slots? I think Dee was a Cloris-Leachman-in-“Spanglish”-like nomination and means nothing. Keener, however, is someone to watch out for. She is really popular and managed a nomination in 2005 for “Capote” without a Globe nomination for an equally beloved film (which also missed out at the Globes only to prevail later on with the guilds and end up with an Oscar nod for Best Picture). Part of me still wants to say that Tomei can make it in for her amazing but brief performance in “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”. Macdonald and Garner, despite the buzz for each of their films, seem to have fallen off any lists at this point. I would be furious is Redgrave slipped in for her several-minute-long performance in “Atonement”, but recently William Hurt (“A History of Violence”) and Judi Dench (“Shakespeare in Love”) have made it in for just as little screen time, and Hurt in a category far more crowded than this one (Dench’s nomination falls before my time as far as following the awards). I am going to be brave with this one, but I very likely will end up with 3/5. Keener is my alternate.

SAOIRSE RONAN, ATONEMENT
MARISA TOMEI, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
AMY RYAN, GONE BABY GONE
CATE BLANCHETT, I’M NOT THERE
TILDA SWINTON, MICHAEL CLAYTON