Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The remaining seven:
CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
HAL HOLBROOK, INTO THE WILD
TOM WILKINSON, MICHAEL CLAYTON
JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
TOMMY LEE JONES, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Could surprise:
MAX SYDOW, THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONE
PAUL DANO, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

I think this category is pretty much locked and ready to go. Affleck and Bardem are beyond locked and Wilkinson seems safe. Travolta was probably just a Globes thing, and Jones should have more luck, if any, in the Best Actor category. Hoffman’s film was snubbed by all the guilds but he should be able to return unscathed (à la Clive Owen and Natalie Portman in 2004 for “Closer”) minus any other nods for his film. Holbrook’s SAG nomination put him back on track. As far as the potential surprises, there is almost zero chance that Harris could make it in but I can always hope. I do not agree with all the hoopla for Sydow’s near-cameo, but I loved the film and he may manage a nomination. The film is, however, a foreign film after all and his chances are therefore greatly diminished. And Dano, who I was disappointed in, could ride his film’s buzz to a nomination. This is, quite honestly, the only category I am completely confident in and expect a 5/5 prediction rate.

CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
HAL HOLBROOK, INTO THE WILD
TOM WILKINSON, MICHAEL CLAYTON
JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN