DGA Nominees and the Race for Best Picture

The Directors Guild of America announced their nominees today. I correctly predicted 2/5.

JULIAN SCHNABEL, THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
SEAN PENN, INTO THE WILD
TONY GILROY, MICHAEL CLAYTON
THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

This is quite interesting because I really cannot see this being the final Oscar list for Best Picture. This is terrific news for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" and "Into the Wild", which is pretty much now fully recovered from its Globes near-shutout. Paul Thomas Anderson is in, which means that "There Will Be Blood" does in fact have a lot of support. What is sort of cool is that this category is made up of first-time nominees, with the exception of Joel Coen (Ethan Coen was not considered a co-director for "Fargo", so this is his first nod).

As far as Oscars go, this is bad news for "Sweeney Todd", which may instead see a nomination for Johnny Depp and some technical awards. It has been MIA since the Globes announcement and a Producers Guild nomination will really be needed to help it. I do not understand this backlash against "Atonement". I liked the film, and I thought most did. This kind of backlash/continuous snubbing has happened to three films since I started really following the race: "Cold Mountain", "Closer", and "Dreamgirls". They all got warm receptions at the Golden Globes only to peter out along the way ("Dreamgirls" did manage a DGA nod and was still a bit of a shocking snub come Oscar nominations time). I do not see why people are leaving "Atonement" off the list. While the Oscar Best Picture nominees are rarely my five favorite films of the year, I can at least see why they do well (for the most part, at least). "Atonement" seemed like one of those films. The inclusion of Paul Thomas Anderson proves that late-entry films were seen, so where is "Atonement", and can it still make an Oscar recovery?

I am saddened that my brilliant "Juno" theory did not pan out, but I still think "Juno" can make it into the Best Picture category at the Oscars. It is assured a WGA nomination, and the PGA should embrace it just like they did "Little Miss Sunshine" last year. The question is, who gets the boot? "No Country for Old Men" is a lock at this point, and "Into the Wild" seems all the more likely every day. I am still wavering on the chances of "There Will Be Blood". I wish "Michael Clayton" would drop off the list, but like "Babel" last year, it just refuses to go. There are only three comparable experiences in recent years that would signal a "Michael Clayton" snub at the Oscars, films which received a Golden Globe Best Picture bid but not a Best Director nomination only to receive a DGA nod but no corresponding Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. Those are "Dreamgirls", "Memento", and "The Truman Show". The latter one, my personal favorite, made it in for Best Director at the Oscars, and "Michael Clayton" is certainly not going to make it in for Best Director without a Best Picture nod. My predictions are always slightly weighted; that is, they reflect my own personal wishes a little bit. Last year I predicted "Children of Men" and "United 93" for Best Picture over "Babel" and "The Queen", and I would have loved to see that, but of course I was swayed by own desires.

At least "American Gangster" seems to now be out of the race. I am not sure the DGA changes anything for my Best Picture predictions, though I am torn about replacing Joe Wright ("Atonement") with Paul Thomas Anderson in the Best Director category. In any case, predictions continue to be:

Best Director
SIDNEY LUMET, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD
JULIAN SCHNABEL, THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
SEAN PENN, INTO THE WILD
THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
JOE WRIGHT/PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON (ask me to decide later)

Best Picture
ATONEMENT
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
INTO THE WILD
JUNO
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Golden Globe winner predictions begin later today.