Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. This category is specific to SAG, and it is one of the most fun because it recognizes all of the actors working together rather than merely the performance of one. Nominated films rarely match up 100% with Oscar nominees for Best Picture (2001 and 2004 are exceptions, though SAG had six nominated films in 2004). Nominated films range from those that truly embody the idea of the ensemble (“Bobby”) to those with only a few core cast members (2004 again, when “Sideways”, “Hotel Rwanda”, and “Million Dollar Baby” were all nominated).

Previous winners:
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
CRASH
SIDEWAYS
THE RETURN OF THE KING
CHICAGO
GOSFORD PARK
TRAFFIC
AMERICAN BEAUTY
SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
THE FULL MONTY
THE BIRDCAGE
APOLLO 13

Opening note: It is always possible that American Gangster will get nominated though it hardly deserves it or that the bizarre collection of actors and actresses from I’m Not There will make a surprise appearance. As to the rest of the contenders, I have yet to find a film whose presence would be as pleasantly shocking as that of either “The Station Agent” (2003) or “Hustle & Flow” (2005).

The top contenders:
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
While Brad Pitt and Casey Affleck are front-and-center for a good portion of the film, this really is an ensemble effort that pays off very well with some terrific supporting performances. I think the western genre and the fact that only two of the actors really have big roles while some of the ensemble is hardly in the film (Mary-Louise Parker) may reduce the film’s chances here.

ATONEMENT
Starring popular young actors James McAvoy and Keira Knightley and featuring a cameo by the likes of Vanessa Redgrave. Sounds tailor-made for a nomination to me. Different actresses playing the role is also a good thing for creating a cohesive ensemble working together.

CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
They are sure to all be having fun, but will audiences? It is still too early to tell whether the powerhouse cast including Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, and Philip Seymour Hoffman will sit well with voters. I imagine it may do just fine with this crowd and very possibly make the top five.

EASTERN PROMISES
Viggo Mortensen, Naomi Watts, Armin Mueller-Stahl, Vincent Cassel, and a handful of other actors make up the cast of this dark thriller. The film was a while ago, but SAG is exactly the type of branch which might recognize this film’s cast since neither Mortensen or Watts is likely to make it onto their lists.

GONE BABY GONE
This is the surprise underdog nominee I am putting my full backing behind. Casey Affleck leads a terrific cast including Ed Harris, Morgan Freeman, Amy Ryan, and Michelle Monaghan. This is just the film that might fly under the radar and make an appearance here.

HAIRSPRAY
In recent years, hit musicals “Dreamgirls” and “Chicago” have showed up in this category. I do not think “Hairspray” will go as far towards the Oscars, sweeping up dozens of awards along the way, but I think it could make a final stand here for lack of any major competition.

JUNO
It can easily be called this year’s “Little Miss Sunshine”; the only hiccup is that only two performers are receiving a lot of buzz (Ellen Page and Jennifer Garner). The rest of the cast is uniformly great, but no one stands out. That can be an issue with a comedy, but I think “Juno” should by default take the comedy slot this year, beating out “Knocked Up”, “Superbad” (wouldn’t that be fun, though?), and “Waitress”.

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
The Coen Brothers direct a cast that includes Josh Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, and Woody Harrelson. This is the kind of film that delights in giving bit performers extended scenes that are memorable and amusing. While I was not blown away by the ensemble effort here, I am fairly certain that SAG voters will be. Back in 1996, the Coen Brothers’ “Fargo” somehow missed out on a nomination in this category with a far better (and pretty much unbeatable) ensemble.

THE SAVAGES
The problem here is that the cast is limited to three actors. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Laura Linney, and Philip Bosco can surely carry a movie all by themselves, but I think they would need at least one other cast member to make the cut. Only one film has ever been nominated with a cast of three, and that film went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture – “Million Dollar Baby”.

SWEENEY TODD
This is the movie musical that could take on “Hairspray” this year. None of Tim Burton’s previous efforts, most notably “Big Fish”, has managed to break into this category, so my gut tells me “Sweeney Todd” will miss out on this award, though that should not affect its chances elsewhere too much.

Current predictions:
ATONEMENT
GONE BABY GONE
HAIRSPRAY
JUNO
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN