Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. SAG categories often match up 60-100% with corresponding Oscar categories, though SAG tends to recognize some more independent fare every once in a while.

Last year’s winner:
HELEN MIRREN, THE QUEEN

The top contenders:
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, ATONEMENT
She is rumored not to have a substantial role in the highly anticipated and raved-about film. The fact that she missed out on a nomination two years ago for “Pride & Prejudice” does not help matters. The force of the film, and the fact that Knightley seems to be choosing more mature roles these days, may overcome those obstacles.

JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
Christie is a revered actress who chose a challenging role and delivered a performance which earned amazing reviews. Christie missed out on a nomination for 1997’s “Afterglow” before earning an Oscar nod, but I think that “Away from Her”, or at least her performance, should be more widely embraced and easily earn her a SAG nomination.

CATE BLANCHETT, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
Blanchett’s performance is not nearly as good as it was back in 1998, when Blanchett lost this award to Gwyneth Paltrow for “Shakespeare in Love” (the travesty!). Still, competition is weak and the recent awards love for Blanchett, as well as her supporting role this year in “I’m Not There”, may catapult her to the top of the nominations list.

ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
Page is the breakout star of a comedy that is sure to be a hit. Comedies are not really a handicap at the SAG Awards, but Page’s age is a factor she will have to overcome. Since the inception of the awards in 1994, only one actress as young as Page has been nominated, and that was for a serious role: Evan Rachel Wood for “Thirteen” in 2003.

TANG WEI, LUST, CAUTION
The few people who saw it loved Wei’s performance, but there is literally no buzz for this film. The reason I place Wei on this list is that foreign performers have had great success in this category in the past few years (Catalina Sandino Moreno for “Maria Full of Grace”, Ziyi Zhang for “Memoirs of a Geisha”, and Penelope Cruz for “Volver”). With the current trend, Wei should easily find her way to a nomination, but I think that is highly unlikely.

ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
I am not sure if everyone is underestimating this performance or if I am simply overestimating it. It was very small and early, and voters will likely be remembering Jolie as Grendel’s mother in “Beowulf”. Still, I think Jolie can go the distance much like the similarly serious “United 93” managed to do last year despite an early release and controversial subject matter.

LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES
Linney is a respected actress with two recent nominations from the people at SAG. She was snubbed for a similarly dry performance in “The Squid and the Whale” two years ago, but she should have a much easier time making it in this year, provided voters like the film, which they definitely should.

HELENA BONHAM CARTER, SWEENEY TODD
I am not sure if she is definitely a lead, but SAG is usually generous with category promotions (Jennifer Connelly was considered a lead for “A Beautiful Mind”). Carter has not had too many big roles lately and has not figured into an awards race since 1997’s “The Wings of the Dove”, for which she received a nomination. As I commented with Depp, I think “Sweeney Todd” will be passed over by SAG.

MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
Did I mention that foreign performers have a great shot in this category? And that Cotillard has received unqualified raves for her performance, which I can say is absolutely mesmerizing. I see no possible scenario in which she is left off the list.

KERI RUSSELL, WAITRESS
I am really just making stuff up here. The best actress race is usually down to about seven or so candidates (Wei, Irglova, and Russell would be the fillers for this race), but I want to include ten to capture the fringe-possibilities. Russell was terrific in the film and has been getting a lot of work lately (“August Rush”, a guest spot on “Scrubs”), but I think her film was too small and too long ago. Plus, it is really only a seven-person race.

Current predictions:
JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES
MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE