Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. SAG categories often match up 60-100% with corresponding Oscar categories, though SAG tends to recognize some more independent fare every once in a while. Last year’s nominees in this category presented one of the biggest surprises of the awards season, introducing Jackie Earle Haley and Djimon Hounsou as serious contenders and placing Leonardo DiCaprio in the supporting category for “The Departed”. There will obviously be major overlap with and similarities to the Golden Globe predictions.

Last year’s winner:
EDDIE MURPHY, DREAMGIRLS

The top conteders:
RUSSELL CROWE, AMERICAN GANGSTER
Crowe has been rewarded with four SAG nominations, winning one in 2001 for “A Beautiful Mind”. He made it in for “Cinderella Man”, a performance far less recognized by other awards guilds. Having seen “American Gangster”, I cannot believe that Crowe would realistically get in, but his awards track record despite his public behavior is astounding.

CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Affleck is excellent as Robert Ford and more than holds his own against Brad Pitt. I think the film by the time of the SAG nominations announcement should have picked up enough buzz to help Affleck manage a nomination, but fresher films with unexpected candidates could pose a problem.

ETHAN HAWKE, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
Hawke has not had many major roles in the past few years, but picked up a SAG nomination in this category in 2001 for “Training Day”. Hawke does have a great role in “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”, and at this point this seems like the definitive indie that could crack its way onto nomination lists with a stronger force than expected.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
Hoffman has the same problem as his co-stars Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts. Mike Nichols’ last film, “Closer”, was shut out by SAG and nearly all other groups after a warm reception by the Golden Globes. Hoffman also has two other roles, one of which could be seen as supporting (“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”), and such category confusion can mean an outright snub (Meryl Streep missed out on nods for both “Adaptation” and “The Hours” in 2002 because she cancelled herself out).

ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONE
The performance is terrific but the role is regrettably small. Harris missed out on nominations for both “The Truman Show” and “Pollock”, which both went on to garner him Oscar nominations. He was here five years ago for “The Hours” for another small but fantastic role, so if the film reaches a large enough audience, Harris may receive a nomination.

JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
I know it seems ridiculous, and it is. Travolta is funny in his cross-dressing performance in the hit musical, but hardly worthy of an actors’ prize. Some also find his performance offensive and unfaithful to the original character. Travolta received a SAG nomination during the awards’ first year for his lead performance in “Pulp Fiction”. The SAG Awards do allow for the more humorous performances, recognizing in 1996 both Hank Azaria and Nathan Lane for “The Birdcage”. Until more serious contenders emerge, Travolta appears to be at the front of the pack.

HAL HOLBROOK, INTO THE WILD
His brief performance in “Into the Wild” is extremely sympathetic and it is hard not to like him. His chances really depend on how widely “Into the Wild” is recognized. Without strong support for the film, Holbrook’s performance will not be talked about as much and easily fall through the cracks.

JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Bardem delivers an unbelievable performance in “No Country for Old Men” which outdoes every single one of his castmates and has critics everywhere talking. Bardem’s snub in 2000 for “Before Night Falls” should easily be overlooked given the reputation of the Coen Brothers and the reaction to Bardem’s performance.

TOMMY LEE JONES, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
He is hardly in the movie, and is far better in “In the Valley of Elah”, but something tells me Jones will find himself with two SAG nominations come nominations announcement day. Very often SAG chooses a performer who has done great work recently and nominates him for a performance that does not seem to make much sense. Recent examples include Chris Cooper for “Seabiscuit” in 2003 and Don Cheadle for “Crash” in 2005. This tendency could work against Jones, who has two performances this year, as it did for Terrence Howard in 2005, when he found himself with zero nominations after two great performances in “Hustle & Flow” and “Crash”.

PAUL DANO, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
This one will be too hard to gauge until the first awards nominations come out, since the film is not being released until December 26. Dano was excellent in last year’s “Little Miss Sunshine”, but it is unclear if his role in Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film is substantial enough as well as whether he carries it effectively. The supporting actor in a film with a powerhouse performance by an established actor is often rewarded, like Ethan Hawke opposite Denzel Washington in “Training Day”.

Current predictions:
CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONE
JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
TOMMY LEE JONES, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN