Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. SAG categories often match up 60-100% with corresponding Oscar categories, though SAG tends to recognize some more independent fare every once in a while.

Last year’s winner:
FOREST WHITAKER, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

The top contenders:
DENZEL WASHINGTON, AMERICAN GANGSTER
He is a powerhouse actor in a meaty role. Some people liked “American Gangster”, others did not. I think the Globes will really tell whether “American Gangster” and its stars will have a fighting chance throughout awards season. My gut tells me Washington is out.

BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
The role is a terrific one, and Pitt plays it well, but his subtlety may not catch voters’ eyes. Pitt missed out on a SAG nomination twelve years ago after winning a Golden Globe for his supporting performance in “Twelve Monkeys”, but I think he has markedly matured now and his fellow actors may respect that.

JAMES MCAVOY, ATONEMENT
He is a budding young actor with multiple great roles this year. He should have been here last year in the supporting category for “The Last King of Scotland”, and I doubt SAG voters will snub him again this year, especially given the roaring success “Atonement” is supposed to be.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
I am hesitant to say which film Hoffman is more of a contender for – “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” or “The Savages”. Hoffman is a past winner in this category (for “Capote”) and was previously nominated when other guilds snubbed him (for “Flawless” in 1999). I do not think either of his roles will be enough to get Hoffman in this year, but he is certainly a go-to independent choice.

TOM HANKS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
Hanks is having fun in this film but I do not think he fits the role.. What worries me as far as Hanks goes is that Mike Nichols’ last film, “Closer”, garnered Golden Globe wins for stars Clive Owen and Natalie Portman, who were then both snubbed by SAG. Maybe the screenplay by Aaron Sorkin (whose “West Wing” has berthed many SAG winners) will boost the actors’ likeability of Nichols’ characters.

JOHN CUSACK, GRACE IS GONE
I am not quite certain why I am putting Cusack here, since I think the performance is probably overrated, the film does not look great, and its release date has been pushed back. But I feel like if Cusack is going to turn up anywhere, it will be here. He is an actor who has hardly ever been rewarded in any way and this could be just the time and place.

TOMMY LEE JONES, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
He is an esteemed actor but his last awards stretch was a year before the SAG Awards came into existence (“The Fugitive” in 1993). No precursors is never a problem for SAG, and I think that if the quality of Jones’ performance can eclipse the lukewarm reception to the film, Jones should be in for sure.

GEORGE CLOONEY, MICHAEL CLAYTON
They gave him the award for a performance he did not deserve it for two years ago, so why not now? Clooney was just more subdued in “Syriana”, and the combination of that same subtlety mixed with a bit of fiery lawyer-fixer rage may be just what SAG voters are looking for. I think “Michael Clayton” is by no means (though it should have been) an actors’ film, and may suffer the consequences.

JOHNNY DEPP, SWEENEY TODD
I am torn on Depp’s chances. His win here for “Pirates of the Caribbean” four years ago and the overwhelming reception for 2002’s “Chicago” seems to indicate that Globe voters do in fact love musicals. I just do not think that “Sweeney Todd” is the kind of movie that screams for recognition for its actors. I could well be wrong, but I have a feeling that “Sweeney Todd” will do well at the Golden Globes and skip straight to the Oscars.

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
If there is one lock in this category, it is Day-Lewis. The film looks to be interesting, but most definitely Day-Lewis has a role full of scenery-chewing. He won this award in 2002 for “Gangs of New York” and his latest role looks to be very similar, not in a been-there-done-that way, but rather a he-is-going-to-be-awesome way.

Current predictions:
BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
JAMES MCAVOY, ATONEMENT
JOHN CUSACK, GRACE IS GONE (I do not know about this one)
TOMMY LEE JONES, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD