Final Golden Globe Predictions

I have not made as made changes as I might have expected, but some recent developments may be highly influential. Amy Ryan has won every critics’ award for her supporting performance in “Gone Baby Gone”, and I now consider her to be almost a lock. “There Will Be Blood” has also done exceptionally well with critics’ prizes, and I think it will be rewarded with four nods but ultimately miss out on the Best Picture prize, like “Munich” two years ago. Drama/comedy category confusion is a dangerous thing, and it is truly shaking up my predictions. I have kept Laura Linney in the comedy category for “The Savages” (though I doubt the film will get any other nominations), but transplanted Marion Cotillard to the far less crowded drama category for “La Vie en Rose”. Mike Nichols’ “Charlie Wilson’s War” has been switched to comedy, as far as I know, and I still believe that it will be all-or-nothing (the film, director, screenplay, Hanks, Hoffman, and Roberts all nominated or none of them) and then receive few nominations from other awards groups. I feel very confident about my foreign film predictions, though “The Orphanage” may overtake “The Kite Runner”. Watch out for “The Kite Runner” as well as the other three Oscar-ineligible foreign films, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”, “Lust, Caution”, and “La Vie en Rose” to show up elsewhere, possibly in the directing category. The film I am most rooting for to do well (runner-up: “Once”) is “The Assassination of Jesse James”. Casey Affleck is secure, but Pitt and the film? I am not sure, but this could be an added boost. Nominees announced early Thursday morning, check back that day for major reactions.

No Guts, No Glory
MICHAEL CERA for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical for SUPERBAD

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
JAMES MCAVOY, ATONEMENT
TOMMY LEE JONES, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
EMILE HIRSCH, INTO THE WILD
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Alt: VIGGO MORTENSEN, EASTERN PROMISES

Best Actress is a Motion Picture – Drama
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, ATONEMENT
JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
CATE BLANCHETT, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE

Alt: TANG WEI, LUST, CAUTION

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
TOM HANKS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
SETH ROGEN, KNOCKED UP
RYAN GOSLING, LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
JOHNNY DEPP, SWEENEY TODD
DON CHEADLE, TALK TO ME

Alt: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, THE SAVAGES

Best Actress is a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
AMY ADAMS, ENCHANTED
NIKKI BLONSKY, HAIRSPRAY
ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
KATHERINE HEIGL, KNOCKED UP
LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES

Alt: NICOLE KIDMAN, MARGOT AT THE WEDDING

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
HAL HOLBROOK, INTO THE WILD
JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Alt: ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONE

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
SAOIRSE RONAN, ATONEMENT
JULIA ROBERTS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
AMY RYAN, GONE BABY GONE
MICHELLE PFEIFFER, HAIRSPRAY
CATE BLANCHETT, I’M NOT THERE

Alt: LESLIE MANN, KNOCKED UP

Best Director – Motion Picture
JOE WRIGHT, ATONEMENT
SIDNEY LUMET, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
MIKE NICHOLS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
DAVID CRONENBERG, EASTERN PROMISES (6th nominee)
THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Alt: ANG LEE, LUST, CAUTION

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
ATONEMENT
CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
JUNO
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Alt: BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD

Best Original Score – Motion Picture
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
ATONEMENT
THE KITE RUNNER
RATATOUILLE
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Alt: LUST, CAUTION

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
ENCHANTED, “That’s How You Know”
HAIRSPRAY, “Come So Far”
INTO THE WILD, “Guaranteed”
MUSIC & LYRICS, “Pop Goes My Heart”
ONCE, “Falling Slowly”

Alt: ONCE, “Leave”

Best Foreign Film
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, AND 2 DAYS
THE KITE RUNNER
LUST, CAUTION
LA VIE EN ROSE

Alt: THE ORPHANAGE

Best Animated Film
BEE MOVIE
RATATOUILLE
THE SIMPSONS MOVIE

Alt: BEOWULF

Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
HAIRSPRAY
JUNO
ONCE
SWEENEY TODD

Alt: KNOCKED UP

Best Motion Picture – Drama
ATONEMENT
BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
EASTERN PROMISES
INTO THE WILD
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Alt: THERE WILL BE BLOOD