Golden Globe Musings: Best Motion Picture - Drama

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is way to early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point. This category feels pretty locked up at this point. This category in particular often includes films which have not yet opened at the time of the nominations announcement and start off campaigns for those films.

The top contenders:
AMERICAN GANGSTER
Will backlash against this over-hyped film hurt its chances? More importantly, is there really that much backlash? The release did come at a great time.

THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Did people like it or did they think it was too long? Praise may be reserved for Casey Affleck, but I suspect “Jesse James” will show up in a lot of places. As long as they do not have Jessica Biel announcing again, who last year had to stumble through the entire extended "Borat" title.

ATONEMENT
This film will be opening a week before the nominations are announced and should easily make it in given the rave reviews that it has been getting.

CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
This is one of the films which will depend entirely on Globe reception because its release is not until Christmas. A few years back “Closer” popped up here, and “Charlie Wilson’s War” may be a more generically appealing film if it is not too hokey.

EASTERN PROMISES
Dark and violent, David Cronenberg’s thriller may have disappeared from voters’ minds. It did receive a great deal of good marks back in September, and Cronenberg’s last effort, “A History of Violence” made it in here.

IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Paul Haggis’ drama received so-so reviews and will really need to resurge before awards season to make it in.

INTO THE WILD
This is a great film, but as I have said everywhere else I predicted it, I just do not know how much critics went wild for it. This could be a good entry point for the film into the awards mania.

MICHAEL CLAYTON
A lot of people called it the best movie of the year. I did not. Regardless, Clooney proved a few years ago that he was an unstoppable force, but even “Syriana” did not make it in to this category (despite my predicting it).

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
The Coen Brothers’ bloody film is getting excellent reviews and they are awards favorites. “The Man Who Wasn’t There” was recognized here in 2001, and this film is a far bigger and better deal.

THERE WILL BE BLOOD
P.T. Anderson’s oil drama is another one that will peek really late, hitting theatres December 26th. The release date did no favors for “Children of Men” last year, but I think buzz may help this film’s chances.

Anything else? Sidney Lumet’s latest, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, is earning good marks but I think it is too small. Same goes for Gone Baby Gone, although it could surprise. I have no idea whether I’m Not There is considered a drama, but I think it will be a bizarre experience regardless which Globe voters may hesitate to reward. I remember seeing a movie about Love in the Time of Cholera last year (“The Painted Veil”), and that one did not do well with awards despite a well-known cast. Hopefully there will be a surprise contender here that is not 3:10 to Yuma.

Current predictions:
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
ATONEMENT
CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
EASTERN PROMISES
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN