Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is way to early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

The top contenders:
STEVE CARRELL, DAN IN REAL LIFE
The increasingly powerful Carrell has received reviews that call his performance “Oscar-worthy”. I am more than tempted to disagree, since the role does not scream “awards” to me at all. For lack of appropriate competition, Carrell may find himself with his first major film nomination for a performance far less deserving than previous ones (“Little Miss Sunshine” or “The 40-Year-Old Virgin”).

JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
Travolta is downright ridiculous playing a female character in the bouncy musical, but he is admittedly pretty funny. People have mentioned his name as an Oscar contender in the supporting category, which I highly doubt, but if there is any place to honor his performance, it is here.

SETH ROGEN, KNOCKED UP
This film was really popular with critics and audiences alike. Rogen in particular was singled out for his surprisingly endearing performance of the guy who knocks up a hot girl and actually (sort of) steps up to the plate. Previous comedies like “Wedding Crashers” and “The 40-Year-Old Virgin” fell flat with Golden Globe voters, and I think the film and co-star Heigl have a much better shot than Rogen.

RYAN GOSLING, LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
Gosling missed out on a Globe nomination despite receiving an eventual Oscar nod last year for his dramatic turn in “Half Nelson”. In “Lars and the Real Girl”, Gosling turns in a wonderful performance as a delusional man who falls in love with an Internet sex doll. Gosling should have no trouble getting in, save for the fact that his performance is much subtler than other contenders in this field.

GLEN HANSARD, ONCE
The film received pretty strong raves and is likely to make a showing somewhere at the Golden Globes. The music and the film itself might be more likely to earn a mention, but Hansard is in almost every scene and does his part to his credit. It is really a question of how much they love the film, because he does not stand out apart from the film as being extraordinary, but is pretty much just as good.

JOHNNY DEPP, PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END
I have had enough of Depp’s Captain Sparrow, who I loved in the first film but tired of quickly in the second. It is not that Depp is bad; instead, it is that the performance has already been done and nothing new is being added to it. I doubted that Depp would make it in last year for his repeat performance, but he did, and so he very well could this year. I think his performance in “Sweeney Todd” will be the talk of the town, and people will forget about the disaster that was “Pirates 3”.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, THE SAVAGES
This guy is busy this year. “The Savages” looks to be the best shot at a nomination for him this year. Though Hoffman has received numerous nominations from different guilds for roles in films like “Flawless”, “Almost Famous”, and “Punch-Drunk Love”, he has only one Golden Globe nomination (and win) to his name, for “Capote”. The film does look great though.

JOHNNY DEPP, SWEENEY TODD
Well, this just looks like a load of fun. Depp is not for everyone, but he has received seven Golden Globe nominations, including consecutive nods the past four years. I cannot see how he could miss out unless reactions to the film are universally negative. He just looks so good. A bit dark perhaps, but that should not be an issue.

MICHAEL CERA, SUPERBAD
Wouldn’t this be fun? Cera just seems too young and too non-lead (he shares most of his scenes with Jonah Hill) to make it in, especially for this highly inappropriate romp. “Knocked Up” should capture the awards buzz, while “Superbad” may have to settle for high DVD sales.

DON CHEADLE, TALK TO ME
This film came and went with hardly anyone making a fuss. Cheadle is a popular actor’s actor, and this performance looks like it would just be pure fun. Anyone who doubts Cheadle’s chances based on the small nature of his film should look no further than last year’s inclusion of the superb Chiwetel Ejiofor in “Kinky Boots”. Cheadle is also much better known and established than Ejiofor.

Anyone else? A number of films have more than one lead actor, which could reduce their chances of getting in. Michael Cera’s co-star Jonah Hill is just as good, but I feel like he will not be rewarded with any nominations. “The Bucket List” looks like a missable film, but stars Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman have amassed 21 Golden Globe nominations between them. “The Darjeeling Limited” features wonderful performances from Owen Wilson, Adrien Brody, and Jason Schwartzman, but none of them outshine any of the others enough to enable voters to choose one over the other. Dustin Hoffman, who has been nominated over ten times, has the lead role in the mid-November family fantasy “Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium” which does not strike me as an awards contender, but you never know. And let us call Marc Anthony a dead last possibility for “El Cantante”.

Current predictions:
JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
SETH ROGEN, KNOCKED UP
RYAN GOSLING, LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, THE SAVAGES
JOHNNY DEPP, SWEENEY TODD