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Sunday, March 14, 2021

Final Oscar Predictions

It’s funny – in this post last year, I remarked that Oscar season had flown by because everything was moved up a few weeks and certain announcements had come within just a few days. This year, this process has dragged on forever, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’s just hard to deal with the inconsistency of eligibility and the fact that certain movies weren’t even seen by anyone until a few weeks into 2021.

Last year, I had seen every film I was predicting aside from six shorts. Now, I’m missing one theoretical song nominee and two shorts. I’m not being nearly as bold as I was then about any surprise inclusions, but I am betting on a few unexpected snubs, namely “Time” in the Best Documentary race. I’m hoping to be excited about any unpredicted nominees and not too disappointed by snubs. My bet is that “Mank” will be the nominations leader with ten bids, followed by “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” with eight.

I’m not getting up at 5:19am tomorrow to watch the nominations, but it’s the first thing I’ll be doing when I get up a bit later. As soon as I am awake, you can expect detailed reactions by category as soon as I’m up and start posting tomorrow. Click on category headings below for full analysis for each race, and film titles to read my reviews! Leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments!

No guts, no glory:
Jasmila Žbanić (“Quo Vadis, Aida?”) for Best Director
“Palm Springs” for Best Picture
Tom Holland in Best Actor for “Cherry”

Final Predictions:
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director
David Fincher (Mank)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)

Best Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

Best Cinematography
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Production Design
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Promising Young Woman

Best Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Promising Young Woman

Best Film Editing
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Soul
Tenet

Best Original Song
“Wuhan Flu” (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
“Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Io Si” (The Life Ahead)
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
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