I came so close this year - scrambling to watch all of the shorts, finding time to screen all seven and a half hours of “OJ: Made in America” (I’ll be honest – as of this writing, I still have three hours left to watch this afternoon), and discovering a once-daily showtime at just one theater in New York City of “Passengers” only to see it cancelled when I showed up to buy tickets. As a result, I missed just two films – “Passengers” and “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” each nominated for two awards they probably won’t win.
I keep asking people what they think about “La La Land” since I loved it and continue to do so every day as I wake up to “Another Day of Sun” as my alarm and “Mia and Sebastian’s Theme” as my backup five minutes later. Lately, all I’ve been hearing is people, both critics at Sundance or at press roundtables and friends and family members, decrying how they couldn’t understand why everyone is so in love with it. The question is whether it’s unbeatable or not. Those who point to its SAG snub as a sign of its weakness aren’t considering that there really is no ensemble, and it probably never had a shot anyway. Had “Moonlight” triumphed in its absence, I’d be worried, but “Hidden Figures” doesn’t have enough nominations (three total) to take it on. For all those who hate “La La Land,” there are plenty, especially those in the industry, who love it.
We’re heading into the main categories with some decidedly uncertain races. Casey Affleck might lose to Denzel Washington, and Emma Stone and Mahershala Ali don’t have firm grips on their wins even though they’re likely to win. Viola Davis is the one performer who doesn’t have to worry at all. Out of all the other races, I’d say that the “La La Land” score, “Zootopia,” and “OJ: Made in America” are the only sure things. I think “The Salesman” will eclipse “Toni Erdmann” for Best Foreign Film and while I’m predicting lots of victories for “La La Land” though I’m not sure it will take them all.
What would make me happiest is if “Hell or High Water” won something. Screenplay or editing would be great, though Jeff Bridges pulling off a surprise win is probably likeliest and would at least represent something for the film. If “My Life as a Zucchini,” “Land of Mine,” or “13th” won, I’d be thrilled, but I don’t think there’s much hope of that in any of their races. Below, click on category headings to read detailed predictions for each race, and film names for full reviews of each contender. My predicted winner is in bold. Comment if you agree or disagree! Enjoy the show!
Best Picture
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hegdes (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Best Art Direction
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Best Original Song
“The Empty Chair” (Jim: The James Foley Story)
“Audition” (La La Land)
”City of Stars” (La La Land)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Trolls)
Best Sound
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Best Documentary Short Film
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Best Animated Short Film
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Best Live Action Short Film
Enemies Within
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Best Documentary
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America
13th
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Predicted totals:
La La Land - 11
Moonlight - 2
Fences – 1
The Jungle Book - 1
Lion - 1
Manchester by the Sea - 1
Star Trek Beyond - 1
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