I achieved a feat this year I’ve never pulled off before - I saw every movie nominated in every category. It’s exciting to be able to judge the nominees with a full understanding of every category, and I’d hope that it will help my predictions score, though that’s hardly a guarantee.
Smart money would say that “The Revenant” is primed to make a sweep thanks to its strong awards season performance. I’m predicting it to take home three trophies: Best Actor, Best Cinematography, and Best Sound Editing, hardly a resounding haul. I’m predicting that “Mad Max: Fury Road” will take home four awards: Best Film Editing, Best Sound, Best Art Direction, and - most crucially - Best Director. That leaves my predicted Best Picture winner, “Spotlight,” with just one other award, Best Original Screenplay, which may well be the lowest take for a Best Picture winner ever. I’m still sticking with it. This is the first time since I’ve been following the Oscar race that we legitimately have three films vying for Best Picture and no locked frontrunner. Though I predicted “Sideways” and “Juno” to eclipse competing nominees “The Aviator” and “Million Dollar Baby” in 2004 and “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood” in 2007, I was wrong and there were only two films really in the race. I’m betting that “The Big Short” ends up with nothing more than its locked Best Adapted Screenplay win, but it’s also the film that’s won the least, taking home only the PGA, an award that has gone to a film that didn’t win the Best Picture Oscar seven times in its twenty-nine-year history. What’s cool is that three if not four films could feasibly win at the end of the night; it’s just a shame that “Spotlight” is easily the best of them.
There are a few wins that will definitely happen - DiCaprio, Larson, “Inside Out,” “Son of Saul,” “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” for Best Visual Effects - and much of the rest is not set in stone. I hope that “The Revenant” doesn’t win everything, and the same for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” It would be great to see the wealth spread a little bit. I’m also venturing in a different direction on Best Documentary, predicting “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” over heavy favorite “Amy” since I watched all five nominees within a two-week time period and that’s the one that I think will hit voters most. We’ll see!
What would make me happiest is if “Spotlight” won Best Director and Best Film Editing, but I’ll settle for Best Picture. I’m not going to bother rooting for other performances I’d love to see rewarded, like Michael Fassbender or Matt Damon, but I think I’ll be pretty content with most of the other winners. Below, click on category headings to read detailed predictions for each race, and film names for full reviews of each contender. My predicted winner is in bold. Comment if you agree or disagree! Enjoy the show!
Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Best Director
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Brie Larson (Room)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Best Art Direction
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Original Song
“Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
“’Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)
“Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction)
“Writings on the Wall” (Spectre)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)
Best Sound
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Best Documentary Short Film
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Best Animated Short Film
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
Best Live Action Short Film
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Stutterer
Best Documentary
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Predicted totals:
Mad Max: Fury Road - 4
The Revenant - 3
The Danish Girl - 2
Spotlight - 2
The Big Short - 1
Creed - 1
The Hateful Eight - 1
The Hunting Ground - 1
The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared - 1
Room - 1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 1
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