Final Oscar Predictions

At this point last year, I said that I wasn’t so invested in this race, but I don’t feel that way this year. You have to get to a truly technical category or the documentary race to find something that I haven’t seen, and I feel like a few of the films I really liked - “Spotlight” and “Room” especially - have very good shots at racking up numerous nominations. I’m thrilled that Michael Shannon is in the race for “99 Homes,” and I’m still hoping that Kristen Stewart makes the cut for “Clouds of Sils Maria.”

Now to the potential surprises. Last year, I said that Michael Keaton would be snubbed, which was completely wrong, and the only big omission for “Birdman” was in editing. I’m truly concerned about Eddie Redmayne if there isn’t space in Best Actor, and I’m well aware that Best Supporting Actor might head in a very different direction, leaving off Shannon and Tremblay, both of who really deserve nominations. I’m worried about Tom McCarthy being snubbed for Best Director, but I still put him as a lock in my predictions. It’s more likely that “Carol” will get slighted in a number of races, and “The Hateful Eight” could also surge now that it’s been seen, as could “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” It’s hard to know how films like “Brooklyn” and “Sicario” will perform, and it’s even possible that “Mad Max: Fury Road” won’t have a strong showing. But I think “The Big Short,” “The Revenant,” and “The Martian” are the three that will undoubtedly do well across the board. I’m hoping for a few superb surprises, but I know that they will surely come with a few lamentable ones too.

For the first time since 2011, I will not be on the West Coast when the nominations are announced. That means you can expect analysis every half hour beginning right after the nominees are unveiled. Click on category headings for full predictions in each race. Chime in below with your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for plenty of reactions!

No guts, no glory predictions:
Walton Goggins for Best Supporting Actor for “The Hateful Eight” (if only!)
“Steve Jobs” for Best Picture
Juliette Binoche for Best Actress for “Clouds of Sils Maria”

Best Picture
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Best Director
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Brie Larson (Room)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Jacob Tremblay (Room)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
Anomalisa
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Room
Steve Jobs

Best Cinematography
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Best Art Direction
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Trumbo

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight

Best Original Song
“Hey Baby Doll” (Danny Collins)
“See You Again” (Furious 7)
“’Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)
“Writings on the Wall” (Spectre)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)

Best Sound
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Ex Machina
Jurassic World
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Best Documentary Short Film
Body Team 12
50 Feet from Syria
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Minerita
The Testimony

Best Animated Short Film
Bear Story
If I Was God
Love in the Time of March Madness
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Live Action Short Film
Ave Maria
Bad Hunter
Contrapelo
Day One
Stutterer

Best Documentary
Amy
Best of Enemies
Going Clear
He Named Me Malala
The Look of Silence

Best Foreign Language Film
The Fencer
Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Son of Saul
Viva