Final Oscar Predictions

Everything is happening out of order this year, but of course, we knew that was going to happen. Oscar nominations are being unveiled tomorrow morning before the Golden Globes ceremony occurs on Sunday evening, which means both that we won’t know who got a surprise boost and that certain winners may not in fact get that boost since voting obviously closes before then. Still, we know a lot, and it’s that eight films look reliably solid for Best Picture, and that “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “Skyfall” were the other two choices by the PGA. I’m predicting exactly one nomination for the latter, looking purely at historical Bond treatment by Oscar, while I expect (and sincerely hope) that the former will fare well. The one major contender I still haven’t seen is Nicole Kidman in “The Paperboy,” so perhaps I’m being unwise by discounting her chances, but I do think that Ann Dowd can break through for “Compliance,” if not necessarily at her expense. I’d love to see a surge of support for “The Dark Knight Rises” and some technical mentions, about which I’m still uneasy, for “Prometheus” and “The Avengers.” As always, I’m hopeful for a few good surprises and no bad ones. I’m not planning to get up as early as Oscar nominations will be announced since I’m now on the West Coast, but I will be up in the morning as I always am on nominations day bringing you analysis by category on the half-hour. Click on category headings for full predictions in each race. Chime in below with your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for plenty of reactions!

No guts, no glory predictions:
Michael Fassbender for Best Supporting Actor for “Prometheus”
Jean-Louis Trintignant for Best Actor for “Amour”
“The Dark Knight Rises” for Best Picture

Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Master)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Cinematography
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Life of PI
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Argo
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Best Film Editing
Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Brave
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Song
“For You” (Act of Valor)
“Suddenly” (Les Miserables)
“Pi’s Lullaby” (Life of Pi)
“Still Alive” (Paul Williams: Still Alive)
“Skyfall” (Skyfall)

Best Sound Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
The Rabbi’s Cat
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph

Best Documentary Short Film
Education of Mohammed Hussein
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Paraiso

Best Animated Short Film
Adam and Dog
Dripped
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman

Best Live Action Short Film
A Fabrica
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Kiruna-Kigali
Salar

Best Documentary
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Searching for Sugar Man
This Is Not a Film

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
Beyond the Hills
The Intouchables
No
A Royal Affair